Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs - 12/13/18 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Photo by Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Los Angeles Chargers (10-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (11-2)
NFL Football: Thursday, December 13, 2018 at 8:20 pm (Arrowhead Stadium)
The Line: Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 -- Over/Under: 56.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds
The Los Angeles Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs meet in a pivotal week 15 AFC West division showdown from Arrowhead Stadium on Thursday night football.
The Los Angeles Chargers will look for a big road win after winning 3 straight and 9 of their last 10 games after a 26-21 win over Cincinnati in their last outing. Philip Rivers has thrown for 3,638 yards, 29 touchdowns and 6 interceptions on 69.4% passing while Melvin Gordon III leads L.A. with 802 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns and Austin Ekeler has 496 rushing yards this season. Keenan Allen leads the Chargers’ receiving corps with 88 catches for 1,074 yards and 6 scores while Tyrell Williams has 547 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns and Mike Williams has 30 catches for 516 yards and 7 TDs this season. Defensively, Melvin Ingram III leads L.A. with 5.5 sacks while Derwin James has 3 interceptions, 3.5 sacks and a team-high 62 tackles this season. As a team, Los Angeles is averaging 390.8 yards of total offense and 28.2 points per game this season.
The Kansas City Chiefs will be looking to lock up the division after improving to 11-2 following a narrow 27-24 win over Baltimore in their last outing. Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 4,300 yards, 43 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while Spencer Ware leads the Chiefs in rushing with 246 yards this season. Tyreek Hill leads KC’s receiving corps with 1,258 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns while Travis Kelce has 86 receptions for 1,159 yards and 10 scores this season. Defensively, Chris Jones has a team-high 11.5 sacks and Dee Ford is right behind with 11 sacks while Anthony Hitchens has a team-high 67 tackles this season. As a team, Kansas City owns the highest producing offensive unit in the league, leading the NFL with 437.5 yards of total offense and 36.2 points per game this season.
Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games and 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games against a team with a winning home record while the under is 8-1 in their last 9 division games. Kansas City is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 division games while the under is 48-21-1 in their last 70 home games. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these two teams.
I said before that the Chargers had to keep winning to make this game mean something and they did just that. Some may be concerned that L.A. allowed the Bengals to hang around, but I’m simply chalking that up to this being a look-ahead spot for the Chargers and L.A. still won that game. With that said, a low line with the Chiefs at Arrowhead the way KC has been playing is tempting, but home field hasn’t mattered since the road team has covered in 6 of the last 7 meetings, and in all honesty, I’ve been riding the Chargers during this hot streak and I’m not going to get off now. The X factor for me is the fact that this is a Thursday night game. Philip Rivers is 6-3 in his career on Thursday night, while Patrick Mahomes has yet to play on this kind of short rest having never made a start on Thursday night. I think this will be a tight game with neither side wanting to make a mistake, so I’ll side with the Chargers and the points, especially since we are getting the field goal plus the hook.