New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills - 12/23/18 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills - 12/23/18 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports

Buffalo Bills (5-9) at New England Patriots (9-5)

NFL Football: Sunday, December 23, 2018 at 1:00 pm (Gillette Stadium)

The Line: New England Patriots -12.5 -- Over/Under: 45 Click to Get Latest Betting Odds

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The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots meet Sunday in NFL action at Gillette Stadium.

The Buffalo Bills look to play spoiler at this point after splitting their last six games. The Buffalo Bills have lost four of their last five road games. Josh Allen is completing 52.2 percent of his passes for 1,633 yards, six touchdowns and nine interceptions. Allen has one or less touchdown passes in nine of his 10 career games. Zay Jones and Robert Foster have combined for 960 receiving yards and six touchdowns while LeSean McCoy has 29 receptions. The Buffalo Bills ground game is averaging 124.7 yards per contest, and Allen leads the way with 506 yards and six touchdowns. Defensively, Buffalo is allowing 23.8 points and 292.2 yards per game. Tremaine Edmunds leads the Buffalo Bills with 98 tackles, Lorenzo Alexander has 6.5 sacks and Jordan Poyer has three interceptions. 

The New England Patriots look to avoid their third straight loss while winning double-digit games and clinching the AFC East division title. The New England Patriots have won all six home games this season. Tom Brady is completing 65.9 percent of his passes for 3,979 yards, 24 touchdowns and nin3 interceptions. Brady has one or less touchdown passes in five of his last seven games. Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman have combined for 1,431 receiving yards and seven touchdowns while James White has 81 receptions. The New England Patriots ground game is averaging 116.6 yards per contest, and Sony Michel leads the way with 765 yards and five touchdowns. Defensively, New England is allowing 22.1 points and 372.7 yards per game. Kyle Van Noy leads the New England Patriots with 86 tackles, Trey Flowers has 6.5 sacks and Duron Harmon has four interceptions.

Get the Experts BEST BETS For Today's Games

The Bills are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. AFC East, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in December and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The Patriots are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 vs. AFC, 37-15-2 ATS in their last 54 home games and 36-16 ATS in their last 52 games overall. The Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings and the favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. The under is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 games overall. The under is 5-1 in Bills last 6 road games.

The Buffalo Bills continue to play hard, and while their last three wins have come against teams with losing records, each of their last five games have resulted in either a win or a loss by single digits. The New England Patriots are coming off back-to-back last second losses and have lost back-to-back games in the month of December for the first time since 2002. The Buffalo Bills have split their last eight games ATS when a double-digit underdog. The New England Patriots have covered 12 of their last 14 games when a double-digit favorite. You guys know how I am when it comes to big chalk, but this may be one of those times to lay it. The Patriots have been money over the years as double-digit favorites and usually bounce back big after a loss. The Patriots also beat the Bills by 19 points on the road earlier this season and have won the last four meetings against Buffalo by an average of 19 points. The numbers and trends indicate this will be a comfortable victory for the New England Patriots at home.

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Randy’s Pick New England Patriots -12.5

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Sports Chat Place site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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