2020 NFL Draft Prop Bets: Who Will Be Selected First, Tua Tagovailoa Or Justin Herbert?
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Who Will Be Selected First in the 2020 NFL Draft, Tua Tagovailoa Or Justin Herbert?
2020 NFL Draft
The Line: Justin Herbert -110 / Tua Tagovailoa -130
With Joe Burrow to Cincinnati at first overall pretty much entrenched on draft boards, there’s been a lot of back and forth as to who will be the next quarterback taken off of the board, with the two most likely selections being Oregon QB Justin Herbert or Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa. Here, we’ll look at the two and see if we can make some bankroll off of this 50/50 prop.
Why Justin Herbert should go first -110: The elephant in the room for Tagovailoa fans is obviously the laundry list of injuries. Tagovailoa dealt with multiple injuries last season, including the hip ailment that effectively ended his season. Herbert was much more durable, making 32 starts over the last 4 seasons, tied for the 2nd most among FBS quarterbacks. Herbert just seems like the do it all quarterback that any team would covet. HHe can laser the passes into tight coverage, fire the ball downfield with a cannon for an arm, or loft passes downfield and lead open receivers. Herbert can also run and pick up yardage with his feet and to his credit, is a lot faster than most defenders expect him to be.
Why Tua Tagovailoa should go first -130: Herbert had issues in the whole 2018 season and risked getting injured by going back to school in 2019, but there was also regression late in the season as well. Tagovailoa on the other hand, was dominant when he was playing in 2019. If you take out the Tennessee and Mississippi State games, which were the games where Tua was hurt, he threw for at least 4 touchdowns in all but one of those games and threw for over 400 yards in three of those games. Tagovailoa has also had a winning mentality all throughout his playing career and maybe a lot of that has to do with playing at Alabama, where winning has become a regular thing, but he’s still a solid QB that can make clutch plays when called upon and can place the ball downfield if receivers break free.
Pick: A lot of this pick also depends on what moves are made at the deadline, but either way, I’ve said it in our mock drafts on the live show, and in some of our previews, I wouldn’t want to be the team that has to look over my shoulder all the time and worry that my franchise QB is going to get hurt. Tua and his camp can say all they want that he’s healthy and ready to go, and even the Dolphins gave him a passing medical grade. But that hip injury is the same injury that Dennis Pitta suffered, and it re-occurred twice, effectively ending his career. Tua has scrambling ability, but that also leaves him vulnerable, especially when taking hits. Herbert has had his consistency issues, but he played well at the senior bowl and did well at the combine and from a skill set perspective, I just think he’s a more accurate and precise QB than Tagovailoa. Again, this all boils down to positioning, but even then I think Herbert should go first and getting the cheaper price to back it seems to be the play for me in this prop.