Handicapping NFL AP Coach of the Year
2020 NFL Season
One of the more profitable NFL betting props out there is Coach of the Year, as the Bill Belichick comes in as the favorite at +1200 odds. That means that whatever coach you’re betting on for this prop is making you no less than 12 times your money. You can make some serious money if you play your cards right.
Here are five betting options I’m looking at for AP NFL Coach of the Year in the 2020-21 season.
Bill Belichick, +1200 - Usually I shy away from the overall favorite when it comes to future bets, but we have a chance to make 12 times our money with Bill Belichick, a coach who has won this award three times already. The New England Patriots have tampered expectations this season without Tom Brady, but that actually helps Belichick for this award. If the Pats can win nine or 10 games and sneak into the playoffs with Jarrett Stidham at quarterback, it’s hard to argue he doesn’t deserve this award. Who in the world is Stidham?!
Dan Quinn, +3000 - Dan Quinn probably isn’t a good head coach and he’s won a combined 14 games the last two seasons. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Quinn fired sooner than later if he doesn’t turn things around. With all that said, the Atlanta Falcons are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball and could easily go from seven wins to 11 or 12 wins this upcoming season. If that happens, Quinn could be the third Falcons coach to win this award.
Andy Reid, +2200 - I’m not sure why Andy Reid isn’t in the conversation for this award more often considering he’s won double-digit games each of the last five years and is winning 61.8 percent of games for his career. Now that Reid has his Super Bowl, he puts himself in a different conversation and makes him tough to ignore. The Kansas City Chiefs are still probably the best team in the NFL and could easily top last years 12 victories if the hunger is still there. Reid’s team is too talented to turn down at this price.
Brian Flores, +2400 - Brian Flores and his Miami Dolphins are still probably a year or two away from seriously competing, but he deserves attention with these odds considering he just won five games with an XFL roster last year. Since then, the Dolphins loaded up on draft picks and improved their roster through free agency by adding players such as Jordan Howard, Shaq Lawson, Kyle Van Noy and Byron Jones. The Miami Dolphins are rapidly heading in the right direction and Flores is going to make some noise along the way.
Sean Payton, +2200 - Despite having 131 wins on his resume and winning double-digit games in seven of his last 10 seasons, he’s only won this award once, back in 2006. That’s rather surprising and makes for a fun trivia question. Still, the New Orleans Saints are a top-five Super Bowl contender and there’s a chance this is the last season for quarterback Drew Brees. If the Saints push for 12 or 13 wins and have the best record in the NFC, Payton is a near lock for this award. I’ll take a piece of these odds.