NFL Picks: Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots NFL Picks, Predictions 10/5/20
Photo by Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports
New England Patriots (2-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-0)
NFL Football: Monday, October 5, 2020 at 7:05 pm (Arrowhead Stadium)
The Line: Kansas City Chiefs -11 -- Over/Under: 50 Click Here for the Latest Odds
The New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs meet Monday in week 4 NFL action at Arrowhead Stadium in a game rescheduled from Sunday.
The New England Patriots look for their first road victory to get off to a fast 3-1 start to the NFL season. The New England Patriots have won six of their last nine road games. Cam Newton is completing 68.1 percent of his passes for 714 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Newton has two touchdown passes on his last 180 pass attempts but he is out for this one with Covid 18 and Brian Hoyer will take the helm for the Pats. Julian Edelman and N'Keal Harry have combined for 404 receiving yards on 30 catches while Damiere Byrd has nine receptions. The New England Patriots ground game is averaging 178 yards per contest, and Sony Michel leads the way with 173 yards and one touchdown. Defensively, New England is allowing 22 points and 357.7 yards per game. Adrian Phillips leads the New England Patriots with 22 tackles, Derek Rivers has 1.5 sacks and Stephon Gilmore has one interception.
The Kansas City Chiefs look for another victory to start 4-0 for the fourth straight NFL season. The Kansas City Chiefs have won five straight home games. Patrick Mahomes is completing 67.8 percent of his passes for 898 yards, nine touchdowns and zero interceptions. Mahomes has two or more touchdown passes in five of his last six games. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill have combined for 449 receiving yards and five touchdowns while Sammy Watkins has 15 receptions. The Kansas City Chiefs ground game is averaging 141 yards per contest, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire leads the way with 240 yards and one touchdown. Defensively, Kansas City is allowing 20 points and 355.7 yards per game. Anthony Hitchens leads the Kansas City Chiefs with 21 tackles, Chris Jones has 3.5 sacks and L'Jarius Sneed has two interceptions.
The Patriots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games, 42-15-2 ATS in their last 59 games in October and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Chiefs are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 home games, 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. The over is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games overall. The over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 home games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Updated: I was originally leaning toward the New England Patriots and the points simply because we don't get the Pats in the underdog role often. It's been a couple years since the Patriots were six point underdogs, and this will be the first time since 2002 when the Patriots were double-digit underdogs. Bill Belichick is still on that sidelines for New England, but there's a massive drop off with Brian Hoyer at quarterback instead of Cam Newton. Sometimes there's an overreaction to a star player being out, but the Pats need to score points to have any chance in this contest, and I'm just not sure Hoyer is that guy, especially having to get ready on short notice. The Chiefs should be able to roll big here, so it's KC and the big chalk or pass for me.