NFL AFC Championship Picks: Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills 1/24/21 NFL Picks, Odds, Predictions

NFL AFC Championship Picks: Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills 1/24/21 NFL Picks, Odds, Predictions
2021-01-24 18:40:00 EDT

The Kansas City Chiefs face off with the Buffalo Bills Sunday in the NFL’s  AFC Championship Game at Aritemhead Stadium in Kansas City. 

The Buffalo Bills will advance to their first Super Bowl since the 1993 season with a victory here. The Buffalo Bills have won three straight road games. Josh Allen is completing 69.2 percent of his passes for 4,544 yards, 37 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Allen has two or more touchdown passes in eight of his last 10 games. Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley have combined for 2,502 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns while Gabriel Davis has 35 receptions. The Buffalo Bills ground game is averaging 107.7 yards per contest, and Devin Singletary leads the way with 687 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, Buffalo is allowing 23.4 points and 352.5 yards per game. Jordan Poyer leads the Buffalo Bills with 124 tackles, AJ Klein has five sacks and Tre’Davious White has three interceptions.

The Kansas City Chiefs will advance to the Super Bowl back-to-back years with ha victory here. The Kansas City Chiefs have won five of their last six home games. Patrick Mahomes is completing 66.3 percent of his passes for 4,740 yards, 38 touchdowns and six interceptions. Mahomes is questionable for this game due to a possible concussion. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill have combined for 2,692 receiving yards and 26 touchdowns while Mecole Hardman has 41 receptions. The Kansas City Chiefs ground game is averaging 112.4 yards per contest, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire leads the way with 803 yards and four touchdowns. Defensively, Kansas City is allowing 22.6 points and 358.3 yards per game. Daniel Sorensen leads the Kansas City Chiefs with 91 tackles, Chris Jones has 7.5 sacks and Tyrann Mathieu has six interceptions.

The Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall. The over is 5-2-1 in Bills last 8 road games. The over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games in January. The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Kansas City and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

The game and this line obviously weigh heavily on the status of Mahomes, as the Chiefs have almost no chance if Chad Henne is the starter and has to win without a lead. The Chiefs laying points here tells me we’re leaning toward Mahomes being cleared to play. For me, I’m on the Bills regardless of who is on the other side for the Chiefs. While the Kansas City Chiefs are a video game in real life, it’s the Bills that’s been the hottest team in the league, winning each of their last eight games and wouldn’t have lost since October 19 if DeAndre Hopkins didn’t catch that Hail Mary. The Bills have also covered nine of their last 10 games. The Chiefs have failed to cover eight of their last nine games. When the Chiefs and Bills met back in week six, Buffalo more than held its own, only losing by nine points. It’s safe to say the Bills are a much more efficient team than they are now. Give me the Bills and whatever points I can get.

Randy Chambers's Free Pick:
Buffalo Bills +3
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Randy Chambers

Randy has covered sports betting since 2014 and writes about everything from NFL to WNBA.

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