Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions 10/10/21: NFL Week 5 Prop Bets

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions
October 10, 2021 1:00 pm EDT

Detroit Lions Prop Bets

Jared Goff Under 250.5 Passing Yards

T.J. Hockenson Under 50.5 Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff has a passing total line of 250.5. Goff has gone over this total twice in four games. Most recently, the Lions quarterback put 299 yards on 24 completions against Chicago. Through four weeks, Goff is +28 in opponent-adjusted expected passing yards.

The Lion’s offense features tight end T.J. Hockenson as the premier pass-catching option. Hockneson leads the team with 215 yards receiving followed by Deandre Swift’s 199. When dropping back to pass, Goff prefers to look for routes underneath, accounting for nearly 80% of his attempts. The Lions most targeted deep threat is Kalif Raymond who has an average target distance of 10.5 yards.

Minnesota’s defense is ranked 16th in fantasy points allowed to their opponent’s top targeted receivers. The Vikings have done a less impressive job slowing down team number two receivers, allowing nearly 10 fantasy points per game.

I don’t expect a lot of points from the Lions in week five and I don’t see Goff being able to check his way down to going over his line of 250.5. I also see Minnesota being able to focus their energy on slowing down tight-end T.J. Hockneson, so I’m taking the under on both players.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Jared Goff250.550.0275.050.0303.025.0243.075.028.166667

Minnesota Vikings Prop Bets

Kirk Cousins Over 274.5 Passing Yards

Justin Jefferson Over 82.5 Receiving Yards

Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins has an over-under passing yard line of 274.5. Through four games, Cousins has gone over this total 50% of the time. This season he is +43 in expected passing yards (opponent-adjusted). The veteran quarterback is coming off his worse statistical performance of the season. Against the Browns, Cousins threw for just 203 yards with a 52.6% completion percentage.

NFL Week 5 Justin Jefferson
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – SEPTEMBER 26: Justin Jefferson #18 of the Minnesota Vikings during player introductions before the game against the Seattle Seahawks at U.S. Bank Stadium on September 26, 2021 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)

In Minnesota, second-year wide receiver Justin Jefferson has continued to emerge as one of the league’s bright young players. Through four weeks, he has 338 yards receiving on 37 targets. Jefferson has a team target of 24.5%. His running mate Adam Thielen is right behind with a target share of 22%.

The Viking’s wide receivers should be in line for a big game, facing off against a Lion’s defense ranked 25th in fantasy points allowed to number one receivers. My projections show Justin Jefferson being in line for 7 catch 87-yard performance. Therefore, I will be taking Jefferson on the over. I also like Cousins to have a bounce-back game and will take him over 274.5 passing yards

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Kirk Cousins274.550.0280.2550.0326.025.0240.075.043.083333

Joe Kiemen's Free Pick:
See Above
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Joe Kiemen

Joe Kiemen has been writing about sports for over 5 years and focuses on using data analysis/modeling to find profitable betting opportunities.

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