NFL

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills 10/10/21: NFL Week 5 Prop Bets

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills
October 10, 2021 8:20 pm EDT

Buffalo Bills NFL Week 5 Prop Bets

Josh Allen Over 304.5 Passing Yards

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has a over-under passing yard total of 304.5. Through four games, Allen has been all over the board with his game by game production. The the third year quarterback has a game where he threw for 358 yards aginst Washington as well as a 179 yard performance vs the Dolphins. Allen’s production is heavily dependent on his ability to connect on deep balls. This season he is ranked 3rd in the NFL in air yards and 5th in completed air yards.

The Kansas City Chiefs secondary is ranked 20th in the NFL in passing yards allowed to number one receivers. Bills wideout Stefon Diggs figures to be matched up against Chiefs cornerback Charvarius Ward. If Ward is going to slow down his opponent, he will need to avoid getting beat deep. On the season, Diggs has the 3rd most deep targets in the NFL.

This week I see this game ending in a shootout and Josh Allen to put up his second +300 yard game of the season. I am taking Allen on the over.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Josh Allen304.525.0263.7550.0279.025.0241.075.05.916667

Kansas City Chiefs NFL Week 5 Prop Bets

Patrick Mahomes Over 307.5 Passing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has an over-under passing line of 307.5. In four games this year, the former MVP has surpassed this total twice. On the season, he averaging 304.5 yards per contest and is nearly 89 yards above his expected output (opponent adjusted). Mahomes is coming off a week four game in which he completed 80% of his passes for 278 yards.

NFL Week 5 Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes

The Chiefs passing attack is led by receiver Tyreke Hill and tight-end Travis Kelce, who have 454 and 312 yards, respectively. Kelce, is leagues second most targeted tight end and has a target share of 24.2%. Hill is ranked 9th among receivers being thrown to on 28.8% of his team’s dropbacks.

Buffalo’s secondary is led by Tre’Davious White who has helped the unit rank 4th in the NFL in yards allowed to number one receivers. In week five, White will have his hands full trying to limit Tyreke Hill. This year, the Bills cornerback is is allowing receptions on 46% of the attempts thrown his way.

This week I am expecting Patrick Mahomes to go over his over-under line of 307.5 passing yards.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Patrick Mahomes307.550.0304.550.0338.025.0276.075.088.916667

Joe Kiemen's Free Pick:
See Above
Free Bet Match Up To $1,001; Use code DAWGZRF

Joe Kiemen

Joe Kiemen has been writing about sports for over 5 years and focuses on using data analysis/modeling to find profitable betting opportunities.

Related Articles

Back to top button