NFL

Houston Texans vs New England Patriots 10/10/21: Week 5 NFL Prop Bets

New England Patriots vs Houston Texans
October 10, 2021 1:00 pm EDT
The Line: New England Patriots -8.5
(Click here for latest betting odds)

New England Patriots NFL Week 5 Prop Bets

Mac Jones Over 253.5 Passing Yards

New England quarterback Mac Jones has a passing yard over-under line of 253.5. Despite the struggles of the Patriots offense, Jones has thrown for over this number in three out of his four games. This week’s line is right in line with his season average of 253 yards. With Jones, there hasn’t been a lot of variation in his output as there isn’t a big difference between an above or below-average performance.

Jakobi Meyers NFL Week 5 New England Patriots
Jakobi Meyers

The Hoston Texans have defended number one wide receivers near a league-average rate, allowing an average of 81 receiving yards per game. New England’s receiving unit is led by Jakobi Meyers, who has 246 yards through the air. As Mac Jones’ top option, Meyers has a target share of 25.8%, ranking 20th in the NFL. To slow down the Jones-Meyers combo, Houston figures to employee cornerback Desmond King who has yet to allow a touchdown this year but ranks 130th in yards per reception allowed (18.7).

This week I will be taking Mac Jones to surpass his over-under line of 253.5 passing yards.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Mac Jones253.575.0253.075.0276.025.0262.075.0-4.833333

Houston Texans NFL Week 5 Prop Bets

Davis Mills Under 189.5 Passing Yards

Houston Texans quarterback Davis Mills has an over-under passing yard line of 189.5. After taking over for Tyrod Taylor, he has yet to have a game in which he surpassed this number. Mills is coming off his worst performance, throwing for just 87 yards against the Bills. In three games, Mills has just two completions of over 20 yards and ranks 32nd in the NFL in deep-ball attempts.

The New England Patriots defense ranks third in the NFL in fewest yards allowed to number one wide receivers. In four games, opponents’ top pass catchers are averaging just four catches and 45 yards. For the Texans, veteran wide-out Brandin Cooks has a 37.1% target share, ranking first in the NFL. Surprisingly, Cooks has the league’s 8th most deep ball targets. However, Mills and Cooks have only connected on two throws for 46 yards.

Even with a passing yard total of just 189.5, I am not going to be the one taking Davis Mills on the over until he proves he can do it. I am riding the trend and taking the under.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Davis Mills189.50119.033.0128.033.096.067.0-76.0

Joe Kiemen's Free Pick:
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Joe Kiemen

Joe Kiemen has been writing about sports for over 5 years and focuses on using data analysis/modeling to find profitable betting opportunities.

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