NFL

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers NFL Week 6 Prop Bets 10/17/2021

Green Bay Packers (4-1) vs. Chicago Bears (3-2)
October 17, 2021 1:00 pm EDT
The Line: Chicago Bears +191 / Green Bay Packers -219; Over/Under: +46
(Click here for latest betting odds)

NFL Week 6 Prop Bets: Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has a week six passing yard over-under line of 269.5. On the season the MVP is averaging 248.2 yards per game. Rodgers has gone over this week’s number in just 20% of his games.

The Packers veteran quarterback is coming off his most productive game, throwing for 344 yards in a win over the Bengals. This was the first time he has surpassed 300 yards this year.

Wide receiver Davante Adams has a receiving yard line of 93.5. Last week, Adams was once again all over the field, amassing 206 yards through the air. Aaron Rodgers’ top option leads the league in team target share at 37.9%.

I don’t see anything slowing down the connection that Rodgers and Adams share, as the Packers quarterback is dead set on getting his favorite target the ball.

Davante Adams will also have a favorable matchup against a Bears secondary allowing 90 receiving yards per game to number one wide receivers. Given that both Rodgers and Adams have a long history of dominating the Bears, I am taking both players to go over their totals.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Aaron Rodgers269.520.0248.260.0260.040.0249.060.08.933333

NFL Week 6 Prop Bets: Chicago Bears

Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields has an over-under passing yard line of 225.5. In week six, the rookie will get his first taste of the Packers vs Bears rivalry. So far, Fields is averaging just 91.6 yards per game through the air.

Last week, in a win over the Raiders, threw for just 111 yards on 20 attempts. Despite throwing for 209 yards in week four, Matt Nagy and Bears coaching staff went back to a more conservative style of play.

Chicago Bears receiver Allen Robinson is 23rd in the NFL in target share. Robinson is being thrown to on 24% of his team’s dropbacks. On the season, the Bears wideout has seen his production drop compared to previous years.

This week Allen Robinson should be in line for his best game of the season as the Packers will be without top cornerback Jaire Alexander. In his place, Robinson will face coverage from rookie Erick Stokes who struggled in defending Bengals receiver Ja’Marr Chase.

I am expecting Robinson to go over his total of 50.5 receiving yards but am avoiding any prop with Justin Fields.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Justin Fields225.5091.640.0102.040.062.060.0-80.666667

Joe Kiemen's Free Pick:
Aaron Rodgers Over 269.5 Passing Yards
Up to $5000 Risk Free Bet; Use code DAWGZRF

Joe Kiemen

Joe Kiemen has been writing about sports for over 5 years and focuses on using data analysis/modeling to find profitable betting opportunities.

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