NFL

Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Week 6 Prop Bets, 10/14/2021

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-1) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)
October 14, 2021 8:20 pm EDT
The Line: Philadelphia Eagles +241 / Tampa Bay Buccaneers -269; Over/Under: -52.5
(Click here for latest betting odds)

NFL Week 5 Prop Bets: Tampa Bay Buccanears

Tom Brady Over 301.5 Passing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady has a week six over-under passing yard line of 301.5. On the season, Brady has gone over this total in 60% of his contests.

So far the Buccaneers passing attack is averaging 99 yards per game above expectation (opponent-adjusted), ranking first in the NFL.

In last week’s game against Miami, Brady threw for 411 yards on 41 attempts. A big part of this production came from the offense’s ability to connect on deep plays. The veteran quarterback and his receivers had receptions over 20 yards. The longest being a 63-yard pass and catch.

The Tampa Bay receiving corps is led by receiver Mike Evans who has compiled 393 yards through the air. This week, Evans will have a favorable matchup as the Eagles secondary is 27th in the NFL in yards allowed to number one wide receivers.

So far, Philadelphia has used cornerback Darius Slay on top wideouts. Last week, Slay played a significant role in limiting D.J. Moore to just 5 catches for 42 yards.

For this reason, I will be staying away from any props on Mike Evans but will be taking Tom Brady to go over his line of 301.5.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Tom Brady301.560.0353.460.0405.040.0297.060.099.066667

NFL Week 5 Prop Bets: Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Hurts Under 280.5 Passing Yards

This week, Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has a passing yard over-under line of 280.5. This number is set slightly above his season average of 280.5. So far, Hurts has gone over this week’s line in 40% of his games.

On the season, the Eagles quarterback is averaging 34 yards per game over the league average expected output (opponent-adjusted).

In his last game against Carolina, Hurts threw for just 198 yards and averaged 5.4 yards per completion. This was right in line with his expected output vs the Panthers’ defense.

This season Tampa Bay is ranked 20th in the NFL in yards allowed to number one wide receivers. So far, top wideouts are averaging 81 yards per game against the unit. Hurts’ top option, DeVonta Smith is ranked 29th in the NFL in target share and 9th in air yards.

In week six I am taking Jalen Hurts to go under his passing yard line of 280.5. Although the Buccaneers have struggled to slow down their opponent’s passing attack, I see Tampa’s pass rush affecting Hurts in the pocket.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Jalen Hurts280.540.0273.040.0314.040.0211.060.034.466667

Joe Kiemen's Free Pick:
Tom Brady Over 301.5 Passing Yards
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Joe Kiemen

Joe Kiemen has been writing about sports for over 5 years and focuses on using data analysis/modeling to find profitable betting opportunities.

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