NFL

Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Chargers NFL Week 6 Prop Bets 10/17/2021

Los Angeles Chargers (4-1) vs. Baltimore Ravens (4-1)
October 17, 2021 1:00 pm EDT
The Line: Baltimore Ravens -172 / Los Angeles Chargers +158; Over/Under: +48
(Click here for latest betting odds)

Week 6 NFL Prop Bets: Los Angeles Chargers

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has a passing yard over-under of 292.9. This total is below his season average of 315.2. On the season, Herbert has gone over this week’s line in 60% of his games.

In his last game, the Chargers quarterback threw for 398 yards on 43 passing attempts. This was well above the expected output vs Cleveland’s defense of 240 yards.

The Chargers receiving unit is led by Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. On the season, they have 471 and 369 receiving yards, respectively. Williams is ranked 4th in the NFL in air yards and leads the league in receiving touchdowns with 6.

Baltimore’s secondary is ranked 10th in the NFL in yards allowed to number one receivers. The unit is ranked 15th in the NFL in points allowed to receivers as a whole.

The Ravens are expected to use cornerback Marlon Humphrey on Mike Williams. Last week while covering Michael Pittman, Humphry allowed just one catch for 15 yards.

In this week’s game, I will be taking Justin Herbert to go under his passing yard total. If you are dead set on taking the over on a Chargers player. I would recommend Keenan Allen.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Justin Herbert292.560.0315.260.0338.020.0292.060.060.866667

Week 6 NFL Prop Bets: Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has a passing yard over-under line of 240.5. Through five weeks, he has gone over this total in 60% of his games. This season, Jackson has taken a big step forward in the passing game, averaging 303.8 yards per game.

The Ravens receiving corps is led by wideout Marquise Brown. This season, Brown has been one of the league’s best deep threats ranking 8th in total air yards. However, he has also been extremely efficient, catching 74% of his passes, 16th in the NFL.

Los Angeles’ secondary has been middle of the road in defending wide receivers ranked 19th in fantasy points allowed. The unit has been tough on number one wideouts as they are ranked 8th in yardage allowed to their opponent’s top receiver.

In this game, I will be sticking with the theme of going under on the quarterback’s totals. I will also look to fade Marquise Brown on his receiving yard player prop.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Lamar Jackson240.560.0303.840.0310.040.0249.060.072.8

Joe Kiemen's Free Pick:
Justin Herbert Under 292.5
Up to $5000 Risk Free Bet; Use code DAWGZRF

Joe Kiemen

Joe Kiemen has been writing about sports for over 5 years and focuses on using data analysis/modeling to find profitable betting opportunities.

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