NFL

Carolina Panthers vs Minnesota Vikings NFL Week 6 Prop Bets 10/17/2021

Minnesota Vikings (2-3) vs. Carolina Panthers (3-2)
October 17, 2021 1:00 pm EDT
The Line: Carolina Panthers -114 / Minnesota Vikings +100; Over/Under: +48
(Click here for latest betting odds)

NFL Week 6 Prop Bets: Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins has an over-under passing yard line of 262.5. This line is below his season average of 279.2. On the season, Cousins is averaging nearly 40 yards per game above his expected output (opponent-adjusted).

Last week, Cousins threw for 275 yards against the Detroit Lions. In the game, the Vikings quarterback was able to connect with his receivers on 3 passes over 20 yards.

The Vikings receiving corps is led by the second-year receiver, Justin Jefferson. Cousins has targeted Jefferson on 24.9% of his passes. His catch rate of 73% is ranked 18th in the NFL.

Carolina’s defense is ranked 10th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. On average, they give up 64 yards per game to their opponent’s number one receiver.

The Panthers defense figures to use cornerback C.J. Henderson on Justin Jefferson. This season, Henderson has been a tough matchup for receivers. The most yards he has allowed in a game is 35 to Amari Cooper.

In this game, I will be taking Kirk Cousins to go under his passing yard line of 262.5.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Kirk Cousins262.560.0279.240.0313.040.0250.060.039.933333

NFL Week 6 Prop Bets: Carolina Panthers

Carolina Panthers quarterback Sam Darnold has an over-under passing yard line of 265.5. On the season, Darnold has gone over this line in 80% of his games.

In his last game, the Panthers quarterback had his worst performance of the season, throwing for just 177 yards and 3 interceptions.

The Panthers receiving unit is led by D.J. Moore and his 28.7% target share, 6th best in the NFL. Moore is ranked 14th in the NFL in air yards and has a catch rate of 69%. Last week, he finished with 5 catches for 42 yards. His longest reception was just 14 yards.

This season, the Viking’s defense has done a good job limiting number one receivers. Through five weeks they are 5th in the NFL allowing just 52 yards per game. Minnesota figures to use Patrick Peterson on D.J. Moore. The Vikings quarterback will be looking for a rebound game as he allowed 6 catches for 67 yards vs Detroit.

In this game, I will be taking Sam Darnold to finish below his line of 265.5. However, I will target D.J. Moore to go over 78.5 receiving yards.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Sam Darnold265.580.0273.280.0303.040.0283.060.026.4

Joe Kiemen's Free Pick:
Sam Darnold Under 265.5 Passing Yards
Up to $5000 Risk Free Bet; Use code DAWGZRF

Joe Kiemen

Joe Kiemen has been writing about sports for over 5 years and focuses on using data analysis/modeling to find profitable betting opportunities.

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