NFL

Arizona Cardinals vs Houston Texans NFL Prop Bets 10/24/2021

Houston Texans (1-5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (6-0)
October 24, 2021 4:25 pm EDT
The Line: Arizona Cardinals -1183 / Houston Texans +867; Over/Under: -49.5
(Click here for latest betting odds)

NFL Week 7 Prop Bets: Arizona Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has a passing yard over-under line of 251.5. This week’s number is substantially lower than his season average of 290 yards per game.

Since week two, Kyler Murray’s passing yard output has decreased in each game. Last week he threw for just 229 yards. However, his team continues to rack up wins and sits atop the NFC West.

The Cardinals receiving corps is led by DeAndre Hopkins who has 367 yards on a 20% target share. Many thought Arizona would be a high-powered offense, however, the team ranks just 24th in the NFL in pass attempts per game.

Houston’s secondary is ranked 29th in the NFL in passing yards allowed to number one wide receivers. Cornerback Terrance Mitchell is allowing 38 passing yards per game and is being thrown at on 17% of opponents’ dropbacks.

After several weeks of sub-standard performances, I am expecting Kyler Murray to go over his total of 251.5. If you play DFS I would look to build a stack of Murray and Deandre Hopkins.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Kyler Murray251.567.0290.16666733.0302.033.0254.067.051.611111

NFL Week 7 Prop Bets: Houston Texans

Houston Texans quarterback Davis Mills has an over-under passing yard line of 210.5. This number is higher than his season-long average of 182.5. This is likely due to the expectation that his team will fall behind early and need to make up points fast.

Last week, Mills threw for 243 yards in a loss to the Colts. So far, the Texans quarterback is averaging 34 yards per game below his expected output. Simply put, in terms of production, he’s not a good quarterback.

One Texans player I remain high on is receiver Brandin Cooks. In week six, Cooks hauled in 9 catches for 89 yards. Even more important is Mills targeted him on 13 throws. I expect Cooks to continue being the recipient of a majority of his quarterbacks passes.

Arizona’s defense has been tough on number one receivers. Through six games, the Cardinals are holding top wideouts to just 62 yards receiving, 7th in the NFL.

In this game, despite his low number, I am leaning towards taking Davis Mills to go under his passing yard line of 210.5. Even though the Texans are consistently playing from behind, they rank just 27th in pass plays per game. With so few opportunities, I want no part of the over.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Davis Mills210.540.0182.440.0228.040.0115.060.0-34.0

Joe Kiemen's Free Pick:
Kyler Murray Over 251.5 Passing Yards
Free Bet Match Up To $1,001; Use code DAWGZRF

Joe Kiemen

Joe Kiemen has been writing about sports for over 5 years and focuses on using data analysis/modeling to find profitable betting opportunities.

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