NFL

Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs NFL Prop Bets 10/24/2021

Kansas City Chiefs (3-3) vs. Tennessee Titans (4-2)
October 24, 2021 1:00 pm EDT
The Line: Tennessee Titans +143 / Kansas City Chiefs -157; Over/Under: +56
(Click here for latest betting odds)

NFL Week 7 Prop Bets: Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has an over-under passing yard line of 325.5. So far, Mahomes has gone over this total in 50% of his contests. This number is slightly above his season average of 314.5.

On the season, the Chiefs quarterback is averaging 88 yards above his expected weekly output. Last week Mahomes went off for 397 yards, including 6 passes over 20.

The Chiefs receiving group is led by Tyreke Hill who also had a big game. Against the Washington Football Team, Hill had 9 catches for 76 yards and a touchdown. It is worth noting that 71 of these yards came strictly through the air. Typically, Mahomes’ top target does his damage after the catch.

This season, the Titan’s defense is allowing 68 yards per game to wide receivers, 14th in the NFL. Tennessee is expected to primarily use cornerback Kristian Fulton in coverage Hill. Last week, he spent most snaps lined up against Laviska Shenault, allowing 2 catches for 30 yards.

In this game, I am expecting Patrick Mahomes to build last week’s performance and will be taking him on the over at 325.5.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Patrick Mahomes325.550.0314.550.0340.033.0275.067.088.5

NFL Week 7 Prop Bets: Tennesee Titans

Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill has a week seven over-under line of 251.5 passing yards. So far, Tannehill has only surpassed this number in 33% of his games.

Last week, the Titans QB continued to play more of a game manager role, throwing for just 216 yards. A large portion of this yardage came on just one pass for 48 yards.

The Titans wide receiver group is led by Julio Jones who has 263 yards on an 18% target share. The Tennessee offense ranks 20th in the NFL in pass plays per game.

This season the Kansas City Chiefs secondary has been picked apart by opposing quarterbacks. However, this doesn’t always mean the opponent’s number one receivers will be in line for a big game. Kansas City is 18th in the NFL in yardage allowed to top wideouts (78 yards per game).

Last week, the Chief’s defense showed signs of improvement by only allowing 182 yards through the air. I don’t expect the Titans to change their game plan in hopes of putting the game in Ryan Tannehill’s hand. I am taking Tannehill on the under.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Ryan Tannehill251.533.0244.533.0257.033.0204.067.05.944444

Joe Kiemen's Free Pick:
Patrick Mahomes Over 325.5 Passing Yards
Free Bet Match Up To $1,001; Use code DAWGZRF

Joe Kiemen

Joe Kiemen has been writing about sports for over 5 years and focuses on using data analysis/modeling to find profitable betting opportunities.

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