New England Patriots (3-4) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)
October 31, 2021 4:05 pm EDT
The Line: Los Angeles Chargers -245 / New England Patriots +205; Over/Under: -47.5
(Click here for latest betting odds)
NFL Week 8 Prop Bets: New England Patriots
New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones has a passing yard over-under line of 255.5. On the seasons he has gone over this number in 57% of his games. His prop is nearly identical to his season average of 254 pass yards per game.
So far, Jones is averaging 10 fewer pass yards per game than his expected output (opponent-adjusted). Last week the Patriots quarterback had his first game over 307 yards passing. Against the Jets, he had 7 passes go for over 20 yards. Including a long completion of 46 yards.
This year the Patriots offense is ranked 13th in pass plays per game. Mac Jones is the 6th ranked quarterback in overall passing attempts and 9th in total pass yards. As the season has progressed, Jones has shown confidence in throwing the deep ball as he has moved his rating to 14th in the NFL.
Mac Jones has a difficult matchup vs. a Chargers defense ranked 4th in opponent pass yards per game (201.8). In general, teams have opted not to challenge LA’s secondary as they are 4th in opponent pass play percentage.
Even though Jones is coming off the best game of his career, I don’t see him following it up against the Chargers. His line of 255.5 is too high for my taste. I will be taking him to go under his line of 255.5.
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NFL Week 8 Prop Bets: Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has an over-under passing yard line of 290.5. So far, this has been a 50/50 bet as he has gone over this number in half his games.
This week’s line is right in line with his season average of 295.5 passing yards per game. So far, Herbert is averaging 44 yards per game over his expected output (opponent-adjusted).
The Chargers are coming off a bye week. In their last game vs the Ravens, Herbert threw for a season-low 195 yards on 39 passing attempts. His average per attempt of 5 yards was his lowest of the season.
On the season, the LA offense is third in the NFL in pass plays per game. Herbert himself is the NFL’s 7th rated quarterback in overall pass attempts and 11th in passing yards.
So far, the Chargers offense has opted for short to intermediate throws as Herbert is 20th in deep ball attempts and 17th in completed air yards.
This week Los Angeles faces off with a Patriots defense ranked 16th in pass yards per game (245). Through seven games they have done a good job limiting opposing quarterback to a completion percentage of 62%.
In this matchup, I will be taking Justin Herbert to finish with around 250 passing yards and will be taking him to go under his prop of 290.5.