NFL

Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions 10/31/21 NFL Player Prop Bets

Philadelphia Eagles (2-5) vs. Detroit Lions (0-7)
October 31, 2021 1:00 pm EDT
The Line: Detroit Lions +165 / Philadelphia Eagles -190; Over/Under: -49.5
(Click here for latest betting odds)

NFL Week 8 Prop Bets: Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has a passing yard over-under line of 249.5. This line is right near his season average of 245 yards. So far he has surpassed this line in just 43% of his games.

As a passer Hurts’ doesn’t offer tremendous upside. A great performance for the Eagles quarterback would be in the range of 276 yards. Last week he threw for 236 yards on 34 attempts. vs Las Vegas. His longest completion was 27 yards.

Through seven games, the Eagles offense is ranked 19th among NFL teams in pass plays per game. This comes despite having spent a majority of their games playing from behind. Usually, teams with large (negative) point differentials are among the league leaders in pass attempts.

Hurts is ranked 16th among quarterbacks in overall passing yards even though he has the 9th most attempts. His lack of production is not from limited opportunities as he is 8th in both air yards and deep-ball attempts. However, where Hurts has fallen short is not taking advantage of these attempts as he falls to the 20th in completed air yards.

In week eight, I expect Jalen Hurts to do significant damage with his legs, making him a viable fantasy option. But, I don’t see him going over this week’s line of 249.5 passing yards.

NFL Week 8 Prop Bets: Detroit Lions

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff has a passing yard over-under line of 245.5. This number is below his season average of 253 yards per game. He has surpassed this week’s line in 57% of this year’s contests.

So far, Goff is averaging 25 yards per game above opponent-adjusted expectation. Through seven games he has thrown for 1773 yards, with a yards per attempt average of 6.5.

One of the reasons Goff is a viable candidate to go over this week’s passing line is the team’s propensity to throw the ball. Because the Lions are frequently playing from behind, the offensive game plan shifts away from running the ball. On the season, Detroit is 7th in the league in pass plays per game.

Amongst NFL quarterbacks Jared Goff is 3rd in total passing attempts and 10th in passing yards. However, most of these attempts are on short to intermediate routes as he is just 23rd in deep-ball attempts.

This season Philadelphia Eagles opponents have had an easy time completing passes as they are 32nd in the league in completion percentage allowed (74%). Luckily this hasn’t translated into significant yardage as they are the 11th ranked defense in opponent passing yards per game.

In this matchup, I am taking Jared Goff to go over his line of 245.5.

Joe Kiemen's Free Pick:
Jared Goff Over 245.5 Passing Yards
Free Bet Match Up To $1,001; Use code DAWGZRF

Joe Kiemen

Joe Kiemen has been writing about sports for over 5 years and focuses on using data analysis/modeling to find profitable betting opportunities.

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