NFL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints Week 8 2021 NFL Player Prop Bets

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-1) vs. New Orleans Saints (4-2)
October 31, 2021 4:25 pm EDT
The Line: New Orleans Saints +173 / Tampa Bay Buccaneers -205; Over/Under: -49.5
(Click here for latest betting odds)

NFL Week 8 Prop Bets: Tampa Bay Buccanears

Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady has a passing yard over-under of 305.5 passing yards. Even with a line over 300 yards, Brady has gone over this number in 43% of his games. So far, the veteran quarterback is averaging 325 yards per game.

On the season, Brady is averaging 81 yards above his expected average (opponent). Last week in a route over Chicago he threw for a season-low 211 yards. Still, this was 24 yards above what an average quarterback is expected to throw for against the Bears.

This year, the Tampa Bay offense is ranked first in pass plays per game. Brady himself is the number one quarterback in terms of passing attempts. deep-ball attempts and passing yards.

On the season, New Orleans opponents have found success throwing the ball. The Saints are the 20th ranked defense in pass yards allowed per game. However, they have shown the ability to generate turnovers as they are rated 3rd in forced interceptions.

In this contest, I expect Tom Brady to have a good game, but I will be taking him to finish below his line of 305.5.

NFL Week 8 Prop Bets: New Orleans Saints

New Orleans Saints quarterback Jameis Winston has a passing yard over-under line of 225.5. On the season he has gone over this number in just 33% of his games.

Despite coming to New Orleans with a reputation of being a gunslinger, he is averaging 52 yards per game below his expected output.

Last week, Winston finished with 222 yards through the air. Against the Seahawks, he had just two passes over 20 yards and no completions over 40.

A lot of Winston’s lack of production comes from his team’s game plan. So far, the Saints are 31st in the NFL in pass plays per game. New Orleans simply isn’t challenging the defenses with downfield passes. Winston is ranked 25th in deep ball attempts and 28th in completed air yards.

If the Saints want to pull off the upset, they might be forced to lean more on their quarterback as Tampa Bay’s defense is excellent at stopping the run. This season they have been more susceptible to giving up yards through the air, allowing 264 yards per game.

When these two teams meet up, the games are usually tightly contested. However, I think Tampa Bay runs away with this game and forces New Orleans to abandon their run-heavy game plan. But, I still don’t see this translating to Winston going over his passing yard total.

Joe Kiemen's Free Pick:
Tom Brady Under 305.5 Passing Yards
Free Bet Match Up To $1,001; Use code DAWGZRF

Joe Kiemen

Joe Kiemen has been writing about sports for over 5 years and focuses on using data analysis/modeling to find profitable betting opportunities.

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