NFL

NFL Prop Bets Week 10: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team Best NFL Prop Bets Today

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) vs. Washington Football Team (2-6)
November 14, 2021 1:00 pm EDT
The Line: Washington Football Team +325 / Tampa Bay Buccaneers -400; Over/Under: +51
(Click here for latest betting odds)

Tampa Bay Buccanears

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback enters his week 10 game with yet another player prop line over 300 yards. On the season, Brady is averaging 331 yards per game and has surpassed this week’s line of 305.5 in 50% of his contests.

When taking into account the level of his defensive competition, Brady is performing well above average. So far, he is throwing for 75 yards per game above expectation.

Winning Props Bets

In his last game vs. the Saints, the Buccaneers quarterback threw for 375 yards on 28 completions. Making that his 4th +300 yard game of the season.

This week, Brady has yet another favorable matchup against a Washington Football Team secondary giving up 286 yards per fame, last in the NFL. On average, opposing quarterbacks are completing 67% of their passing attempts. These figures are not a good sign as Tampa Bay is the league’s top team in pass plays per game and second in passing yards.

Even though Tom Brady’s line sits over 300 yards, the matchup is too good to risk taking him on the under. Look for Brady to go for his 5th +300 yard game of the season.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Tom Brady305.550.0331.2550.0379.025.0278.062.075.916667

Washington Football Team

Washington Football Team quarterback Taylor Heinicke heads into the game vs Tampa Bay with a player prop of 255.5 passing yards. This season, Heinicke is averaging 241 yards through the air. He has surpassed this week’s line in half of his games.

Given the level of competition he has faced, Heinicke is averaging 17 yards per game above expectation.

Coming off a bye week, Washington’s last game came against the Broncos. In the contest, Heinicke threw for 270 yards on 24 completions. His yards per attempt figure of 6.8 was right in line with previous performances.

This week, the Washington Football team is facing off with a Tampa Bay defense giving up 257 yards per game, 20th in the NFL. Opposing teams have needed to throw the ball to keep up, leading to an average passing attempt number of 40.2 attempts per game.

In this game, I expect Taylor Heinicke to surpass his line of 255.5. This year, his offensive line has done a good job helping him avoid being sacked. Given that he should have time in the pocket, I like Heinicke’s chances to pick apart the Tampa secondary.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Taylor Heinicke255.550.0241.062.0270.025.0216.062.017.166667

Joe Kiemen's Free Pick:
Tom Brady Over 305.5 Passing Yards
Free Bet Match Up To $1,001; Use code DAWGZRF

Joe Kiemen

Joe Kiemen has been writing about sports for over 5 years and focuses on using data analysis/modeling to find profitable betting opportunities.

Related Articles

Back to top button