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NFL Prop Bets Week 10: Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers Best NFL Prop Bets Today

Detroit Lions (0-8) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)
November 14, 2021 1:00 pm EDT
The Line: Pittsburgh Steelers -450 / Detroit Lions +360; Over/Under: +44
(Click here for latest betting odds)

Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger comes into his week 10 game with a player prop line of 240.5. On the season, the veteran quarterback has thrown for a total of 1986 yards and 10 touchdowns. Putting his per game average at 248.5.

So far, taking Roethlisberger to surpass this week’s line of 240.5 has been a 50/50 bet. Given the level of his defensive competition, the Steelers QB is averaging 21 yards per game above expectation.

Winning Props Bets

Last week against Chicago, Roethlisberger threw for just 205 yards. In that game, an average quarterback was projected to throw for 270 yards, making it a below-average performance. In the contest, he had three completions over 20 yards.

This week, he faces off against a Lions defense giving up 244 pass yards per game, 14th in NFL. This number could be a lot worse if Detroit’s run defense wasn’t so poor. So far, teams have not felt the need to air the ball out.

In this game, I will be taking Ben Roethlisberger to finish above his line of 240.5 passing yards. Even with a favorable matchup on the ground, I see a lot of attempts for Roethlisberger, A few of which might go for big plays.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Ben Roethlisberger240.550.0248.2550.0265.038.0229.062.021.291667

Detroit Lions

Lions quarterback Jared Goff comes into his game vs. the Steelers also with a prop line of 240.5 passing yards. In his first season with Detroit, Goff has thrown for 1995 passing yards and 8 touchdowns. Through eight games he is averaging 249 yards per contest.

So far, he has surpassed this week’s prop line in 50% of his games. When taking into account who the Lions have faced, Goff projects as an average statistical quarterback, averaging 7 yards per game above expectation.

Last week against the Eagles, Goff threw for 222 yards on 25 completions. His longest reception was 34 yards. This was his only completion over 20 yards. Against the Eagles, an average QB was projected to throw for at least 230 yards.

This week, the Lions take on a Steelers defense giving up 244.5 pass yards per game, 15th in the NFL. However, they are prone to giving up the big play as their average/pass figure of 7.2 drops the team to 21st.

In this game. I expect Jared Goff to finish below his line of 240.5. Look for the Steelers pass rush to disrupt the Lion’s game plan. Goff is likely to spend a lot of time in 3rd and long situations, not ideal for any quarterback.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Jared Goff240.550.0249.37538.0266.038.0218.062.07.791667

Joe Kiemen's Free Pick:
Ben Roethlisberger Over 240.5 Passing Yards
Free Bet Match Up To $1,001; Use code DAWGZRF

Joe Kiemen

Joe Kiemen has been writing about sports for over 5 years and focuses on using data analysis/modeling to find profitable betting opportunities.

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