NFL

NFL Prop Bets Week 13 Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions Best NFL Props Today

Minnesota Vikings (5-6) vs. Detroit Lions (0-10-1)
December 5, 2021 1:00 pm EDT
The Line: Detroit Lions +299 / Minnesota Vikings -341; Over/Under: +48
(Click here for latest betting odds)

Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins comes into this game with a player prof of 255.5 passing yards. On the season, Cousins has thrown for 3013 yards on 406 attempts. At his current pace, his 7.4 yards per attempt would be his lowest mark in the past three seasons.

So far, he has surpassed this week’s line in 55% of his contests. When taking into account the level of his defensive competition, Cousins is averaging 46 yards per game above expectation.

Winning Props Bets

On the season, the veteran QB is 6th in the NFL in passing attempts, and 7th in overall passing yards. According to Player Profiler’s advanced analytics, Cousins is the number one rated passer in “money throws”, which are pass attempts requiring exceptional skill and athleticism.

This week the Vikings are taking on the Detroit Lions whose defense is giving up 242.9 yards per game. For the year, most teams have found the most success when running the ball vs Detroit. However, with Dalvin Cook suffering a dislocated shoulder, look for Minnesota to come out throwing the ball.

I recommend taking Kirk Cousins to put together a big game against the Lions and am taking him to surpass this week’s line of 255.5.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Kirk Cousins255.555.0273.90909155.0323.027.0238.064.046.212121
Kirk Cousins Passing Profile

Detroit Lions

Jared Goff gets set to take on the Minnesota Vikings with a player prop of 210.5 passing yards. Through 10 games with the Lions, Goff has accumulated 2280 passing yards and 10 touchdowns. His current yard per attempt average of 6.4 would be his lowest figure since his rookie season in LA.

Based on the quality of his defensive competition, Jared Goff has performed been a below-average statistical quarterback. So far, he is throwing for 3 yards per game below expectation. Despite him being the 18th rated QB in overall pass attempts, he is currently the 24th rated passer in total yards. Much of this has to do with his inability to complete the ball down the field. On the year, he is ranked 36th in air yards per attempt.

This week he will face off with a Vikings defense allowing 248.5 yards per game through the air. In their last contest, 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garroppilo threw for 230 yards on 17 completions.

In this game, look for Jared Goff to surpass his line of 210.5 pass yards. Given that the Lions are likely to fall behind early, the team will need to throw the ball, giving Goff just enough chances to sneak over this line.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Jared Goff210.560.0228.040.0253.030.0203.060.0-3.266667
Jared Goff Passing Profile

Joe Kiemen's Free Pick:
Kirk Cousins Over 255.5 Passing Yards
Free Bet Match Up To $1,001; Use code DAWGZRF

Joe Kiemen

Joe Kiemen has been writing about sports for over 5 years and focuses on using data analysis/modeling to find profitable betting opportunities.

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