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NFL Prop Bets Week 13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Best Bets NFL Props Today

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons (5-6)
December 5, 2021 1:00 pm EDT
The Line: Atlanta Falcons +394 / Tampa Bay Buccaneers -461; Over/Under: -50.5
(Click here for latest betting odds)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Heading into his game vs Atlanta, Tom Brady has a player prop line of 295.5 passing yards. For the year, Brady has thrown for 3403 yards and 30 touchdowns on a completion percentage of 67.6%.

Through 11 games, the veteran QB is averaging 309 yards per contest and has surpassed this week’s prop line in 55% of his games. Based on the quality of his defensive opponents, Brady is averaging 67 yards per game above expectation.

Winning Props Bets

This season, the Buccaneers are the 2nd ranked team in pass plays per game, helping Brady rank 2nd in total pass yards. Digging deeper, he is also the top player in air yards and red zone attempts. However, last week vs the Colts, Brady threw for just 226 yards despite completing 73% of his passes. He has now thrown an interception in 4 straight games.

In this game, Brady will match up with a Falcons defense giving up 236.9 yards per game through the air. So far, teams have opted to run the ball vs. Atlanta, only taking to the air on 55% of the time.

I expect Tom Brady to have a bounce-back game and am taking him to finish above his prop line of 295.5 passing yards.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Tom Brady295.555.0309.36363636.0375.027.0269.064.067.969697
Tom Brady Passing Profile

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan heads into week 13 with a player prop line of 250.5 passing yards. On the season, Ryan has thrown for 2617 yards and 16 touchdowns. So far, his yards per attempt figure of 6.9, is one of the lowest marks of his career.

In his 11 games, Ryan is averaging just 237 yards per game, surpassing this week’s line in 45% of his contests. When taking into account the level of his defensive competition, he is averaging 6 yards below expectation.

This season, when Matt Ryan has dropped back to pass, he has opted for underneath routes. So far, he has just 24 deep ball attempts, ranking 28th in the NFL.

Heading into his matchup with Tampa Bay, Ryan has an opportunity to take advantage of a secondary giving up 247.5 yards per game through the air. So far, opposing QB’s have completed 67% of their passing attempts vs the Buccaneers.

In this game, even with a favorable matchup, I am taking Matt Ryan to finish below his line of 250.5 passing yards. Look for the Buccaneers pass rush to disrupt his timing and keep him from driving the ball down the field.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Matt Ryan250.545.0237.90909155.0300.027.0164.064.0-6.212121
Matt Ryan Passing Profile

Joe Kiemen's Free Pick:
Matt Ryan Under 250.5 Passing Yards
Free Bet Match Up To $1,001; Use code DAWGZRF

Joe Kiemen

Joe Kiemen has been writing about sports for over 5 years and focuses on using data analysis/modeling to find profitable betting opportunities.

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