New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins 1/1/23 NFL Picks, Predictions, Odds

Miami Dolphins (8-7) vs. New England Patriots (7-8)
January 1, 2023 1:00 pm EDT
The Line: New England Patriots -1.5 / Miami Dolphins +1.5; Over/Under: 42.5
(Get latest betting odds)

The Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots meet Sunday in week 17 NFL action at Gillette Stadium. The Miami Dolphins have lost 4 straight games. The New England Patriots have lost 4 of their last 5 games.

The Miami Dolphins have lost 3 straight road games. Tua Tagovailoa is completing 64.8 percent of his passes for 3,548 yards, 25 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have combined for 2,892 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns, while Trent Sherfield has 28 receptions. The Miami Dolphins ground game is averaging 95.9 yards per contest, and Raheem Mostert leads the way with 791 yards and 3 touchdowns. Defensively, Miami is allowing 24.7 points and 353.8 yards per game. Elandon Roberts leads the Miami Dolphins with 93 tackles, Jaelan Phillips has 7 sacks and Jevon Holland has 2 interceptions.

The New England Patriots have split their last 6 home games. Mac Jones is completing 65.6 percent of his passes for 2,550 yards, 9 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Jakobi Meyers and DeVante Parker have combined for 1,183 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns, while Hunter Henry has 30 receptions. The New England Patriots ground game is averaging 108.6 yards per contest, and Stevenson leads the way with 944 yards and 5 touchdowns. Defensively, New England is allowing 19.4 points and 320.9 yards per game. Ja’Whaun Bentley leads the New England Patriots with 109 tackles, Matthew Judon has 15.5 sacks and Jonathan Jones has 3 interceptions.

The Dolphins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in January. The Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC East and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The over is 5-1 in Dolphins last 6 road games. The under is 6-2 in Patriots last 8 games overall. The Dolphins are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 meetings in New England and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. The home team is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 meetings.

This game changes drastically if Tua Tagovailoa cant go and Teddy Bridgewater is forced to play quarterback. Yuck. However, the Dolphins are still the better team regardless, and I’m not eager to lay chalk with a Patriots team that is dreadful offensively. The Dolphins may be down their starting quarterback, but the Pats still have Mac Jones and Matt Patricia. The Patriots have scored 18 or fewer points in 4 of their last 9 games. I’m going to grab the points with the Dolphins regardless of who plays QB.

Randy Chambers's Free Pick: Miami Dolphins +1.5

Need More? Get Premium Picks

Randy Chambers

Randy has covered sports betting since 2014 and writes about everything from NFL to WNBA and is more than familiar with what it takes to navigate a 150 game college basketball Saturday and a 162 game MLB schedule. Randy has done it all. Follow Randy Chambers on Twitter or catch him on the PickDawgz YouTube channel.

Related Articles

Back to top button