2023-24 NFL Regular Season Wins – Odds and Best Bets

The NFL Futures and Picks are popular among bettors, who try to get the best possible odds during summer before the new NFL season starts. One of the most attractive NFL betting markets is team props, so make sure you check out my 2023-24 NFL Regular Season Wins – Odds and Best Bets piece. I selected eight teams, and I expect them to make us a profit at the end of the season.  

2023-24 NFL Regular Season Wins Odds

2023-24 NFL Regular Season Wins Best Bets

Buffalo Bills – Over 10.5 Wins (-140)

For five of the last six years, the Buffalo Bills reached the playoffs. Although they made it to just one conference final in that stretch, it’s obvious that the Bills are one of the best NFL teams now. In each of the past three seasons, the Bills recorded at least 11 wins. That is related to the New England Patriots’ end of domination in the AFC East. All of that occurred since Tom Brady left New England.

Sean McDermott established one of the most prolific offenses in the league. Buffalo averaged 28.4 PPG in 2022 (2nd), while its defense was also the second-best, as it allowed 17.9 PPG. Allen has some excellent receivers to work with, such as wideouts Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. TE Dawson Knox, as well. The Bills also have three solid running backs, James Cook, Damien Harris, and Latavius Murray, all of which can serve as starters.

Now, the AFC East is becoming stronger. Even though the Pats are not the force they used to be, the emergence of the Miami Dolphins and recently strengthened New York Jets could make things a bit tricky for the Bills to win the division for the fourth consecutive year. Buffalo doesn’t have an easy schedule, especially late in the season when the Bills meet the Chiefs, Cowboys, Chargers, and Dolphins. The opening game will be against the Jets in New York. It’s going to be a huge test for McDermott’s side. Still, I believe the Bills can win at least six of the first eight games (@NYJ, LV, @WAS, MIA, JAX, NYG, @NE, and TB).

Carolina Panthers – Over 7.5 Wins (-125)

The Panthers went through plenty of changes in the offseason. They have a new head coach, Frank Reich, offensive coordinator, Thomas Brown, and defensive coordinator, Ejiro Evero. Carolina failed to make the playoffs in the previous five years and couldn’t win more than seven games per season in that span. That includes 2022, when they finished with a 7-10 record but nearly reached the postseason, as no team from the NFC South had a winning record.

The last season’s division champs, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, are the weakest team this time out. They will likely be at the bottom of the division, while the New Orleans Saints are the biggest favorites to win it. Carolina has an excellent chance to improve its 7-10 record, not only because of a favorable schedule but because it took the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft – QB Bryce Young out of Alabama.

The Panthers had a lot of trouble with the QB position since Cam Newton left, but it seems that Young is the answer for years to come. In the last two years with the Crimson Tide, Young registered 8,200 yards with 79 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Young, an excellent passer, will have WR Adam Thielen, WR DJ Chark, WR Laviska Shenault Jr., and TE Hayden Hurst to connect with in the air. Carolina added one of the best running backs in the NFL – Miles Sanders, from the Philadelphia Eagles, who erupted last year for 1,269 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns.

Going back to the schedule, only six of 17 games will be against the teams with winning records from 2022. In the final six weeks, the Panthers will face Tampa Bay twice, Atlanta (home), and Green Bay (home). Four wins out of those six duels should be enough to reach at least eight in total in the 2023-4 campaign.

Chicago Bears – Under 7.5 Wins (+105)

Since Justin Fields became a starting signal caller in Chicago, the Bears failed to reach the playoffs and didn’t record more than six wins. Although Fields is perhaps the best running quarterback in the NFL, his passing abilities aren’t great, nor is his receiving corps. The Bears selected OT Darnell Wright in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, but that doesn’t mean they did it to provide more protection in the pocket for Fields. I believe Justin will have 150+ carries this season again, and I don’t expect more than 2,500 passing yards.

Talking about below-average receivers, the Bears have newly-arrived DJ Moore, Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, and Cole Kmet. DJ Morre is certainly an upgrade to what Chicago had in 2022, but the Bears had the worst passing offense (130.5 YPG). They did have the best run offense that averaged 177.3 – mainly thanks to Justin Fields. Running backs D’Onta Foreman and Khalil Herbert are very good, though, so I expect lots of running from the Bears.

The defense was the weakest in the NFL, as it allowed 27.2 PPG. The fact the Bears didn’t change their defensive coordinator, Alan Williams, says a lot. With a poor D and not good enough offense, I’d be surprised if the Bears win more than seven games in the next season.

Cincinnati Bengals – Over 11.5 Wins (+105)

The Cincinnati Bengals have kept the key members of the coaching staff since 2019. Head coach Zac Taylor, offensive coordinator Brian Callahan, and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo stayed despite recording only six wins in the first two seasons. However, Cincy won the AFC North in the last two campaigns, reaching the AFC Championship game on each occasion. The Bengals made it to their third Super Bowl in 2021-22 but lost to the LA Rams.

The last season was a big success as the Bengals matched the franchise’s season-high 12 victories. The offensive core of QB Joe Burrow (my MVP candidate), RB Joe Mixon, and wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd can work wonders and outscore any team. Both offense and defense have the potential to be in the Top 5 this year, and even though the Bengals’ schedule is not very favorable, I believe they can get to 12 wins again. In fact, the Bengals are my biggest favorites to finally win their first-ever Super Bowl.

Denver Broncos – Over 8.5 Wins (+100)

After winning Super Bowl 50 in 2015, the Denver Broncos are without playoff football. In that stretch, they managed to win more than eight games just once (2016-17). It’s evident the Broncos were trading in the wrong direction, but GM George Paton decided to change the team’s fortune this offseason.

The move to bring QB Russell Wilson in a blockbuster trade with the Seattle Seahawks last year wasn’t fruitful. At least not in Russ’ first year at Mile High. Denver finished with a 5-12 record and in the last place in the AFC West. The Broncos had the worst offense in the NFL, averaging 16.9 PPG. However, they hired Sean Payton as a new head coach and added OC Joe Lombardi and DC Vance Joseph. The franchise needed structural changes, and Paton delivered.

Now, it’s up to the players to perform. Payton knows how to revive a veteran quarterback’s career, and I am backing Wilson to bounce back under the new HC and OC. Running back Javonte Williams is back from a knee injury, while wideouts Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, and TE Greg Dulcich will provide help to Russell Wilson on offense. Denver also strengthened its offensive and defensive line, and in my opinion, the Broncos are legit playoff contenders.

The start of the season will be crucial for Payton’s team. If Denver wins at least three of the opening five games (LV, WAS, @MIA, @CHI, and NYJ), I’m sure they will have a winning campaign (a minimum of nine victories).

Detroit Lions – Over 9.5 Wins (-130)

The Detroit Lions are back to relevancy in the NFL following four years of irrelevance. Although their 9-8 record didn’t get them to playoffs in 2022, I think the Lions will be back with an even better campaign this year. It seems the Lions have the best team in the NFC North after Aaron Rodgers’s departure from Green Bay, and Minnesota’s weaker roster now. Chicago, of course, is out of the picture.

Detroit has a Top 5 offense that averaged 26.6 PPG in 2022 but needs to improve its defense. The Lions selected LB Jack Campbell with the No. 18 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and also added RB Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs and David Montgomery will be one of the best running-back duos in the league. Jared Goff has talented receivers around him, such as Amon-Ra St. Brown, Marvin Jones Jr., Kalif Raymond, and Jameson Williams, who is suspended for the opening six games. DE Aidan Hutchinson is an excellent pass rusher and will serve as a defensive leader for many years.

The fact the Vikings and Packers are not as good as they used to be certainly helps the Lions. If they won nine games in 2022, I am backing them to add at least one more in 2023. Four victories out of the first six games (@KC, SEA, ATL, @GB, CAR, @TB seems quite probable. Detroit didn’t record 10+ wins since 2014-15 and now’s the right time to do it.

New York Jets – Over 9.5 Wins (-140)

Let’s be real, I am backing the Jets to get 10+ wins because of Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers and OC Nathaniel Hackett joined the Jets this offseason, while the team also got WR Allen Lazard, WR Mecole Hardman Jr., and WR Randall Cobb. New York’s below-average offense averaged just 17.4 PPG last year, and that’s about to change now.

The team’s better part – its defense, was a Top 5 with 18.6 PPG allowed, and considering the Jets kept key defenders, I expect that D to be rock-solid again. New York failed to make the playoffs for 12 years. In the span, they recorded ten wins just once (2015-16). After getting six wins in total across two seasons, the Jets had seven last year, and after strengthening their offense, I am sure they will make a step forward.

The Patriots are not the force in the AFC East anymore, but it seems the competition is even stronger now. Buffalo and Miami are playoff candidates, but the Jets have a favorable schedule late in the season, and I am backing them to take advantage of it. In the final seven weeks, they will meet Miami twice, Atlanta, Houston, and Washington at home, and travel to Cleveland and New England. All of these games are winnable.

Seattle Seahawks – Over 8.5 Wins (-140)

Russell Wilson, who? The Seattle Seahawks were one of the most pleasant surprises of the previous season, finishing with a 9-8 record and making the playoffs. Not many people expected that after Russell Wilson’s trade to Denver, but Geno Smith produced the best season of his career and impressed. Still, the Seahawks must improve their defense – if they want to be legit Super Bowl contenders. However, I think the current state of offense and defense is enough for them to get nine victories again.

Seattle missed out on the playoffs just twice in the past 11 years, recording 9+ wins in ten along the way. We know that nine wins are a minimum to make the postseason, and after what I saw from the Seahawks in 2022, I am sure they will get to that number in 2023. San Francisco remains a favorite in the NFC West, but the Rams and Cardinals are rather weak, which is a chance for Seattle to have another winning campaign.

I like what Seattle has on offense. A great receiving trio of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Also, RB Kenneth Walker III and TE Noah Fant. Another Top 10 finish, when it comes to offense, is on the cards. Pete Carroll knows what he’s doing, and I wouldn’t be worried if I were a Seahawks fan.