The NFL Most Valuable Player Award is introduced in 1957, and the latest winner was Patrick Mahomes. The Kansas City Chiefs quarterback won it for the second time; the award went to a QB for the tenth consecutive season. The previous non-quarterback to win this prestigious award was running back Adrian Peterson in 2012. With a new season around the corner, let’s see the 2023 NFL MVP odds, favorites, sleepers, and best bet.

2023 NFL MVP Odds

SELECTION	ODDS
Patrick Mahomes	+700
Joe Burrow	+750
Josh Allen	+800
Jalen Hurts	+1100
Justin Herbert	+1300
Trevor Lawrence	+1400
Lamar Jackson	+1500
Aaron Rodgers	+1600
Tua Tagovailoa	+2000
Justin Fields	+2000
Dak Prescott	+2000
Deshaun Watson	+3000
Russell Wilson	+3500
Geno Smith	+3500
Jared Goff	+3500
Kenny Pickett	+4500
Derek Carr	+4500
Brock Purdy	+4500
Kirk Cousins	+5000
Daniel Jones	+5000

 

2023 NFL MVP Favorites

 

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (+700)

After winning the Super Bowl 57 MVP Award, Mahomes will face stiff competition in the 2023-24 season. He is slightly ahead of fellow quarterbacks Joe Burrow and Josh Allen. Given how the Chiefs played with Mahomes as a starting signal caller in the last five years, and the fact they won 12+ games in each of those seasons, it’s not surprising seeing him at the top of the 2023 NFL MVP list.

In 2022, Mahomes threw for over 5,000 yards for the second time in his career and set a career-high in passing yards (5,250). He had 41 touchdown passes with 12 interceptions for a QB rating of 77.6. Tight end Travis Kelce caught 12 of those TD passes, and I expect this connection to produce 10+ touchdowns in 2023. Mahomes is also a capable runner who registered four rushing TDs in 2022 and had at least two in each of the past five seasons. It isn’t popular to bet on the favorite, but the Chiefs are contenders, and with Andy Reid guiding them, Mahomes is a No. 1 candidate to win the 2023 NFL MVP Award.

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (+800)

Allen enters his sixth season with the Bills. He failed to get them to the Super Bowl thus far. This year is perhaps Buffalo’s final attempt before the Bills hit a rebuild button, so Allen and co. have to go all in. The combination of a Top 3 offense and defense puts the Bills among the biggest contenders in 2023.

Allen’s connection with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis is very strong; they caught 18 of his 35 TD passes last season. In addition to his strong arm, Allen is one of the best QB runners. He registered 762 rushing yards for seven touchdowns and had 6+ TDs each year of his career. If you think the Bills can win the SB 58, there is a good reason to back Allen to win the NFL MVP Award.

Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (+1100)

The third year in the NFL was the best for Jalen Hurts. He led the Eagles to the joint-best record in the league and to the Super Bowl. Despite having three rushing touchdowns, the Chiefs prevented Hurts and Philly from winning the title in a tight encounter. The Eagles are again expected to finish atop the NFC, and a lot will depend on Hurts and his favorite three targets.

Hurts threw for career-highs 3,701 yards and 22 touchdowns with six picks in 2022. Interestingly, even 21 of those TD passes went to a trio of A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, who also combined for nearly 3,400 yards! Jalen is a dual threat who had 750+ rushing yards and 10+ touchdowns in each of the last two seasons, so another strong campaign is on the cards for the soon-to-be 25-year-old.

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2023 NFL MVP Sleepers

 

Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos (+3500)

Wilson’s first season with the Broncos was the worst of his career, and he is under a lot of pressure to bounce back in 2023. I am backing him to do it because Denver hired Sean Payton as a new head coach, and I like what the two future Hall of Famers could bring on offense for the last year’s weakest offense in the NFL.

Wilson already has talented receivers around him: Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, and Greg Dulcich, while Denver improved its offensive line to provide more protection to Russ. The Broncos didn’t make the playoffs since their SB 50 win in 2015, and given that I am backing them to reach the postseason in 2023, I consider Wilson one of the 2023 NFL MVP sleepers.

Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants (+5000)

Jones is coming off his best season in the NFL – his fourth in the league. Not only he recorded his career-high 3,205 passing yards, but Jones also became a dual threat thanks to head coach Brian Daboll. Daboll developed Josh Allen into a dangerous runner at Buffalo and now improved Jones’ game. That helped the Giants to reach playoffs for the first time in six years.

Jones doesn’t have a star receiver on his offense; none of the current WRs and TEs had a 1,000-yard season last year. However, he did post 708 rushing yards with seven touchdowns, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes for over 1,000 rushing yards this time out. It won’t be easy for the Giants to reach the top in such a strong division, but that’s why the odds on Jones to win the 2023 NFL MVP Award have been pretty high.

2023 NFL MVP Best Bet

 

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (+750)

Perhaps the most serious candidate to dethrone Mahomes as NFL’s best quarterback is Joe Burrow. After leading his team to the Super Bowl in 2021, where the Bengals lost to the Los Angeles Rams, Burrow led Cincy to the AFC Championship game. The Chiefs got revenge for a 2021 defeat, but Burrow has a fresh chance to take his team all the way this year.

Burrow recorded 4,475 yards for 35 touchdowns and 12 interceptions for a 58.7 QB rating in 2022. Unlike Mahomes, who doesn’t have such a talented receiving corps and usually relies on Kelce, Burrow has such wideouts as Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd to work with, each capable of having a 1,000-yard season. They were on the receiving end of 24 of 35 touchdown passes from Burrow last year and combined for over 2,800 receiving yards. Cincinnati will likely have a Top 5 offense, an opportunity for Burrow to attack the 2023 NFL MVP Award.