Miami Dolphins (9-8) vs. Buffalo Bills (13-3)
January 15, 2023 1:00 pm EDT
The Line: Buffalo Bills -10.5 / Miami Dolphins +10.5; Over/Under: +44
(Get latest betting odds)
The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins do battle Sunday in a NFL AFC Wild Card round contest from Highmark Stadium.
The Miami Dolphins come into the postseason as the 7-seed and finishing the year at 9-8 overall. Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for 3,548 yards, 25 touchdowns and 8 interceptions on 64.8% passing while Raheem Mostert has a team-high 891 rushing yards this season. Tyreek Hill leads Miami’s receiving group with 119 grabs for 1,710 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns while Jaylen Waddle has 75 catches for 1,356 receiving yards and a team-high 8 touchdowns. On defense, Elandon Roberts has a team-high 107 total tackles while Jaelan Phillips has a team-high 7 sacks so far this season.
The Buffalo Bills come in as the #2 seed after going 13-3 in the regular season. Josh Allen has thrown for 4,283 yards, 35 touchdowns and 14 interceptions on 63.3% passing while also posting 762 rushing yards this season. Devin Singletary has 819 rushing yards, James Cook had 507 rushing yards and Stefon Diggs leads Buffalo’s receiving group with 108 grabs for 1.429 yards and 11 TDs while Gabriel Davis has 836 receiving yards and 7 TDs as well this season. Five other Bills have 100+ receiving yards as well on the year. On defense, Tremaine Edmunds has a team-high 102 total tackles while Greg Rousseau and Von Miller each have a team-high 8 sacks this season.
Miami is 0-4 ATS in tehri last 4 playoff games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 division games while the under is 5-0 in their last 5 playoff games. Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record while the under is 5-1 in their last 6 games following an ATS win.
It’s going to be a tough spot for the Dolphins in this one, as I think Miami was lucky to slide themselves into the postseason picture, but right now as it stands, Tua is out for this game and it would lead the Dolphins to playing a backup QB in Skylar Thompson on the road, in Buffalo in January when these Dolphins were using heaters in mid-60s weather not that long ago. I just think the Bills have the edge playing in that kind of environment and it comes back to bite the Dolphins here. Give me the Bills laying the big number.
