In this article, we will formulate an Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers prediction for this NFL game on Sunday, January 5th at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 18 matchup.
Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview
The Atlanta Falcons are 8-8 this season after they lost to Washington in overtime by a score of 30-24 in their last game. Atlanta led 17-7 at halftime, but they needed a late score just to force overtime, before picking up the loss. The Falcons were outgained by a total of 412-337, tied the turnover battle at one, and went 2-10 on third down in the game. Michael Penix Jr. threw for 223 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while Bijan Robinson rushed for 90 yards and two scores on 17 carries.
Prior to that game, the Falcons defeated the Giants by a score of 34-7 and the Raiders by a score of 15-9. Atlanta is second in the race for the NFC South and they need to win + a Buccaneers loss this week. The Atlanta offense has scored 21.9 points per game with 234.9 passing yards and 124.5 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 23.7 points per game this season. Michael Penix Jr. has completed 66.9% of his passes for 463 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while Bijan Robinson has rushed for 1,286 yards and 12 scores this year.
Carolina Panthers Betting Preview
The Carolina Panthers are 4-12 this year after they lost to Tampa Bay by a score of 48-14 in their last game. Carolina tied the game at seven in the first quarter, but they trailed 27-14 at halftime and failed to score any points in the second half in the loss. The Panthers were outgained by a total of 551-204, tied the turnover battle at zero, and went 2-9 on third down in the game. Bryce Young threw for 203 yards and two touchdowns, while Adam Thielen caught five passes for 110 yards and two scores in the game.
Prior to that loss, the Panthers defeated Arizona by a score of 36-30 but did lose to Dallas by a score of 30-14 before that. Carolina has lost five of their last six games and they are currently last in the NFC South standings. The Carolina offense has scored 18.6 points per game with 182.4 passing yards and 107.7 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 31 points per game this season. Bryce Young has completed 59.7% of his passes for 2,152 yards, 12 touchdowns, and nine interceptions, while Adam Thielen has caught 43 passes for 571 yards and five scores this year. Chuba Hubbard is the best player on this Carolina offense with 1,195 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, but he is out for the season with an injury.
Why the Falcons will beat the Panthers
- The Panthers have lost each of their last 13 road games played on the East Coast.
- The Falcons have won six of their last seven home games against NFC South opponents.
- The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven road games played on the East Coast.
- The home team has covered the spread in six of the Falcons’ last eight games.
- The Falcons have scored the first touchdown in seven of their last eight home games against the Panthers.
- The Panthers have lost the first half in each of their last 12 games following a road loss.
- The Panthers have lost the first quarter in four of their last five games against NFC South opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Panthers’ last six games played on the East Coast has gone OVER the total points line.
- Nine of the last 10 games between NFC South teams have gone OVER the total points line.
- Seven of the Falcons’ last eight Sunday games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts
- Kirk Cousins has recorded 307+ passing yards in eight of his last 10 home appearances against NFC South opponents.
- Kyle Pitts has recorded 22+ receiving yards in 12 of his last 13 appearances against NFC South opponents.
- Bijan Robinson has scored two touchdowns in three of the Falcons’ last four day games against teams with a losing record.
- Bijan Robinson has recorded 105+ rushing and receiving yards in seven of the Falcons’ last eight games as favorites.
- Bijan Robinson has scored at least one touchdown in seven of the Falcons’ last eight games against NFC opponents.
- Tyler Allgeier has recorded 33+ rushing yards in eight of the Falcons’ last nine games as favorites against NFC South opponents.
- Kirk Cousins has recorded 23+ completions in nine of his last 11 appearances with his team as a home favorite against NFC opponents.
- Heading into Week 18, Kirk Cousins has recorded the most completions in a single game this season (42 vs Buccaneers, Week 5).
Carolina Panthers Player Prop Facts
- David Moore has recorded 17+ receiving yards in each of the Panthers’ last nine games.
- Xavier Legette has recorded 39+ rushing and receiving yards in five of his last six Sunday appearances with the Panthers as underdogs.
- Xavier Legette has scored a touchdown in each of the Panthers’ last three games as underdogs following a road loss.
- Bryce Young has recorded 17+ rushing yards in five of the Panthers’ last six games as underdogs.
- Heading into Week 18, Raheem Blackshear ranks 2nd in the NFL in kick return yards (791) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Heading into Week 18, the Falcons rank 32nd in the NFL in Q4 points per game (3.4) this season.
- Heading into Week 18, the Falcons rank 29th in the NFL in Q2 opponent points per game (8.9) this season.
- Heading into Week 18, the Panthers rank 32nd in the NFL in points allowed per game (31.0) this season.
- Heading into Week 18, the Panthers rank 32nd in the NFL in yards allowed per game (396.3) this season.
Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers Prediction
Atlanta comes into this matchup needing a win to keep their postseason hopes alive, but they also need the Bucs to lose their game. The Falcons have lost five of their last seven games and the poor play of Kirk Cousins can be blamed for a lot of that, which is why Penix Jr. will be starting. Carolina has been pretty competitive down the stretch, but they were blown out by the Bucs last week. The Panthers have had a ton of issues on defense this season and I just don’t see how they are going to hold up against an Atlanta team that is desperate. Take the Falcons to win big at home.