In this article, we will formulate an Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers prediction for this NFL game on Sunday, September 8th at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week one matchup.
Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview
The Atlanta Falcons went 7-10 last year and they finished third in the NFC South behind Tampa Bay and New Orleans. Atlanta opened the season by going 4-3 through their first seven games, but they finished the season by going just 3-7 in the final ten games. Atlanta had some struggles on defense down the stretch, as they allowed 29 points or more in three of their last five games. The Falcons did have some quarterback issues, as they started Ridder and Heinicke last year. The Atlanta offense scored 18.9 points per game, while the defense allowed 21.9 points per game.
Atlanta was 0-3 in the preseason, which started with a 20-13 loss against Miami in their first game. The Falcons lost to Baltimore in their second game by a score of 13-12 and dropped the finale by a score of 31-0 against Jacksonville. The Falcons brought in Kirk Cousins at the quarterback position in the offseason and he will look to jump-start an offense that had some issues last season. The Atlanta defense had some issues throughout the 2023 season, but I do think they will be better this year.
Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Preview
The Pittsburgh Steelers were 10-7 last season and they finished third in the AFC North behind Baltimore and Cleveland. Pittsburgh started the season with a record of 7-4 through their first 11 games, but they went just 3-3 down the stretch to finish the regular season. Pittsburgh lost to Buffalo by a score of 31-17 in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. The Steelers also had some inconsistent play at quarterback and started Pickett, Trubisky, and Rudolph. The Pittsburgh offense averaged 17.9 points per game, while the defense allowed 19.1 points per game.
Pittsburgh was also 0-3 in the preseason, which began with a 20-12 loss against Houston in the opener. The Steelers lost their second game by a score of 9-3 against Buffalo and lost to Detroit by a score of 24-17 in the finale. Pittsburgh has announced Russell Wilson will be the starting quarterback to start the season, but they also have Justin Fields as the backup. The Steelers will have Najee Harris as the running back, but I don’t love the receiver room.
Why the Falcons will beat the Steelers
- The Falcons have won each of their last four home openers against AFC opponents.
- The Steelers have lost three of their last four September games against NFC opponents.
- The home team has covered the spread in each of the Falcons’ last four games.
- The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games as road underdogs.
- The favorites have won the first half in nine of the Steelers’ last 10 Week 1 games.
- The Steelers have won the first quarter in each of their last two games as slight underdogs (<+3.5 points).
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Steelers’ last seven road openers as underdogs has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of the Falcons’ last six home games against AFC opponents has gone UNDER the total points line.
Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts
- Kyle Pitts has scored a touchdown in each of the Falcons’ last three home games as slight favorites (<-3.5 points).
- Kirk Cousins has thrown two or more touchdowns in each of his last seven home appearances in September.
- Kirk Cousins has recorded 251+ passing yards in each of his last seven September home appearances.
- Drake London has recorded 67+ receiving yards in five of his last six home appearances.
- Kirk Cousins has recorded 29+ completions in each of his last seven home appearances.
- Tyler Allgeier has recorded 39+ rushing yards in each of the Falcons’ last 16 Sunday home games.
- Jessie Bates III ranked 3rd in the NFL in interceptions (6) last season.
Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Facts
- Russell Wilson has thrown two or more touchdowns in eight of his last nine appearances against NFC South opponents.
- Najee Harris has scored at least one touchdown in five of the Steelers’ last six games as road underdogs against NFC opponents.
- Russell Wilson has recorded 17+ rushing yards in each of his seven previous September appearances with his team as an underdog against NFC opponents.
- Russell Wilson has recorded 240+ passing yards in each of his last seven September road appearances.
- Najee Harris has recorded 65+ rushing and receiving yards in eight of the Steelers’ last nine Sunday road games.
- Russell Wilson has recorded 27+ completions in three of his last four Week 1 appearances.
- Najee Harris has scored the last touchdown in three of the Steelers’ last four Sunday road games.
- Van Jefferson has recorded 13+ receiving yards in nine of his last 10 appearances with his team as a road underdog.
- T.J. Watt ranked 1st in the NFL in sacks (19.0) last season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Falcons ranked T2nd in the NFL in forced fumbles (19) last season.
- The Falcons ranked 31st in the NFL in average kickoff return (16.9 yards) last season.
- The Steelers ranked 1st in the NFL in Q4 opponent points per game (3.5) last season.
- The Steelers ranked T2nd in the NFL in forced fumbles (19) last season.
Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction
Both of these teams come into this season hoping that a change at quarterback will spark a better 2024 record, as the Steelers will try to return to the postseason. I don’t love Wilson at quarterback for the Pittsburgh offense, as I think Fields is the better option, while I also have concerns about the Pittsburgh wide receiver room. I do think Cousins will be a huge help for this Atlanta offense and while I don’t love the game, I am going to side with the Falcons at home.