The New England Patriots and the Baltimore Ravens meet in week 16 NFL action from M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens prediction.
New England Patriots Recap
The New England Patriots come into this game looking to rebound from a 35-31 loss at the hands of Buffalo last time out to sit at 11-3 this season. After this game, New England will head on the road again for a game against the New York Jets.
Patriots Have 10-Game Win Streak Snapped
Drake Maye has thrown for 3,567 yards, 23 touchdowns and 7 interceptions on 70.9% passing while TreVeyon Henderson has a team-high 773 rushing yards and 7 TDs. Rhamondre Stevenson has 374 rushing yards and 3 TDs and Drake Maye has 362 rushing yards with 4 TDs while Stefon Diggs has a team-high 67 catches for 731 yards and 3 TDs to lead New England’s receiving group. Kayshon Boutte has 511 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns while Hunter Henry has 628 receiving yards and 5 TDs. Two more Patriots have 400+ receiving yards and another three receivers have 200+ receiving yards as well on the year. On defense, Robert Spillane has a team-high 97 total tackles including 48 solo tackles while Harold Landry III has a team-high 8.5 sacks. K’Lavon Chaisson has 6.5 sacks and Milton Williams has 3.5 sacks. As a unit, New England’s defense has combined for 29 sacks and 8 interceptions so far this season.
Why the New England Patriots will win
- The Patriots have won each of their last six road games.
- The Ravens have lost each of their last two games as home favorites.
- The Patriots have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as underdogs without Rhamondre Stevenson.
- The Ravens have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four home games against AFC opponents.
New England Patriots Player Prop Facts
- TreVeyon Henderson has scored two or more touchdowns in three of the Patriots’ last four games played on the East Coast.
- Drake Maye has recorded 21+ completions in each of the Patriots’ last three road games against AFC opponents.
- Drake Maye has recorded 259+ passing yards in six of the Patriots’ last seven games.
- TreVeyon Henderson has recorded 62+ rushing yards in each of the Patriots’ last five games.
- TreVeyon Henderson has recorded 75+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Patriots’ last seven games.
- Joshua Dobbs has scored a touchdown in six of his last seven appearances with his team as an underdog.
- Austin Hooper has recorded 19+ receiving yards in each of the Patriots’ last nine games following a loss.
- Heading into Week 16, Drake Maye has the highest completion percentage in a single game (min. 10 ATT) this season (91.3% vs Titans, Week 7).
Baltimore Ravens Recap
The Baltimore Ravens come into this game looking to add on to their 24-0 win over Cincinnati last time out to sit at 7-7 this season. After this game, Baltimore will head on the road for a game against the Green Bay Packers.
Ravens Snap Two-Game Slide
Lamar Jackson has thrown for 2,210 yards, 18 touchdowns and 6 interceptions on 63.5% passing while Derrick Henry leads Baltimore in rushing with 1,125 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns so far this season. Zay Flowers leads Baltimore’s receiving group with 71 catches for 959 yards while Mark Andrews has 40 grabs for 359 yards and 5 touchdowns this season. On defense, Roquan Smith has a team-high 114 total tackles while Nate Wiggins has 3 interceptions and Baltimore’s defense as a whole has combined for 22 sacks and 9 interceptions so far this season.
Why the Baltimore Ravens will win
- The Ravens have won eight of their last nine Week 16 home games.
- The Patriots have lost each of their last five December games against AFC opponents.
- The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games as underdogs without Anfernee Jennings.
- The Ravens have covered the spread in each of their last four Week 16 games as favorites.
Baltimore Ravens Player Prop Facts
- Derrick Henry has scored two or more touchdowns in each of his last four home appearances against AFC East opponents.
- DeAndre Hopkins has recorded 13+ receiving yards in 50 of his last 51 regular season appearances with his team as a home favorite.
- Derrick Henry has recorded 99+ rushing and receiving yards in eight of his last nine December home appearances.
- Derrick Henry has recorded 82+ rushing yards in eight of his last nine December home appearances.
- Derrick Henry has scored at least one touchdown in each of his seven previous home appearances against AFC East opponents.
- Heading into Week 16, Derrick Henry is the only player to have recorded 1000+ rushing yards in each of the last four seasons. (including 2025).
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Patriots’ last seven games as underdogs without Rhamondre Stevenson have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the Ravens’ last five games without Isaiah Likely have gone OVER the total points line.
New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens Prediction
I’m on the Patriots and the points here. I just think this is a case of too many points to give up to a Patriots team that’s still fighting to lock up their division and has been able to win games on the road left and right this season. I’m still not 100% sold on Baltimore, and I think this is going to be a hard fought game on both sides where I think the points come in handy. Give me the Patriots and the points here.