The New England Patriots and Denver Broncos meet Sunday in the NFL AFC Championship at Empower Field. Here’s a Broncos vs Patriots Prediction. This article will include a Broncos vs Patriots Pick.
New England Patriots Betting Preview
The New England Patriots beat the Chargers and Texans. The New England Patriots have won 15 of their last 16 games. The Patriots look to make their first Super Bowl trip since the 2018 season. Drake Maye is completing 72 percent of his passes for 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry have combined for 1,781 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns, while Kayshon Boutte has 33 receptions.
The New England Patriots ground game is averaging 128.9 yards per contest, and TreVeyon Henderson leads the way with 911 yards and 9 touchdowns. Defensively, New England is allowing 18.3 points and 295.2 yards per game. Robert Spillane leads the New England Patriots with 97 tackles, Harold Landry III has 8.5 sacks and Jaylinn Hawkins has 4 interceptions.
Denver Broncos Betting Preview
The Denver Broncos beat the Bills and Chargers. The Broncos have won 14 of their last 15 games. The Broncos look to make their first Super Bowl since the 2015 season. Jarrett Stidham will start at quarterback, and he hasn’t thrown a pass since the 2023 season. Stidham is completing 59.4 percent of his passes for 1,422 yards and 8 touchdowns in his career on 197 pass attempts. Troy Franklin and Courtland Sutton have combined for 1,726 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns, while Evan Engram has 50 receptions.
The Denver Broncos ground game is averaging 118.7 yards per contest, and J.K. Dobbins leads the way with 772 yards and 4 touchdowns. Defensively, Denver is allowing 18.3 points and 278.2 yards per game. Alex Singleton leads the Denver Broncos with 135 tackles, Nik Bonitto has 14 sacks and Dondrea Tillman has 2 interceptions.
Why the Denver Broncos will win
- The Broncos have won 14 of their last 15 games.
- The Patriots have lost 11 of their 12 previous games at Empower Field at Mile High against opponents on a winning streak.
- The Broncos have covered the spread in each of their last six home games without Alex Singleton.
- The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games as road favorites following a home win.
- The home team has won the first half in each of the last four postseason games between the Patriots and Broncos.
- The underdogs have won the first quarter in each of the Broncos’ last five postseason games.
- The Broncos have scored the first touchdown in six of their last seven games against AFC East opponents.
Why the New England Patriots will win
- The Patriots have won each of their last eight road games.
- The Broncos have lost each of their last six January games as underdogs.
- The Patriots have covered the spread in eight of their last nine road games.
- The Broncos have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games without Nik Bonitto.
- The Patriots have won the first quarter in five of their last seven Sunday games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Patriots have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six games following a win.
- The Patriots have won the first half in each of their last 14 games following a win.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Patriots’ last five road games in January have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the Broncos’ last four games as underdogs following a home win have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Three of the last four AFC Championship games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Denver Broncos Player Prop Facts
- Courtland Sutton has scored a touchdown in five of the Broncos’ last six games as underdogs against teams on a winning streak.
- Courtland Sutton has recorded 50+ receiving yards in 12 of the Broncos’ last 13 games as underdogs.
- Jaleel McLaughlin has recorded 37+ rushing yards in three of the Broncos’ last four games.
- Jarrett Stidham has recorded 219+ passing yards in each of his four previous appearances as a starter.
- Jarrett Stidham has recorded 20+ completions in each of his four previous appearances as a starter.
- Heading into the Conference Championships, Alex Singleton has recorded the equal-most tackles in a single playoff game this season (14 vs Bills, Divisional Round).
New England Patriots Player Prop Facts
- Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded 53+ rushing yards in each of his last four January appearances.
- Drake Maye has recorded 230+ passing yards in eight of the Patriots’ last nine road games.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded 77+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Patriots’ last seven games.
- Austin Hooper has recorded 11+ receiving yards in nine of his 10 previous road appearances against AFC West opponents.
- Joshua Dobbs has scored a touchdown in each of his last four appearances against teams that held a winning record.
- Drake Maye ranked 1st amongst qualified players for passer rating (113.5) during the reg. season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Broncos – 15 different players have recorded 1.0 sacks or more in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Conference Championships.
- The Broncos ranked 1st in the NFL in sacks (68.0) during the reg. season.
- Patriots – two different players have recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Conference Championships.
- Patriots – two different players have recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Conference Championships.
Broncos vs Patriots Prediction
The Patriots seem to be the easy pick, as they’ve won 16 of their 19 games and are 14-5 ATS on the season. The Broncos are forced to start a backup quarterback who hasn’t thrown a pass in years. This has blowout written on it, but yet the line is just 4.5 points. Smells fishy. We can’t forget the Broncos have one of the best defenses in the league. The Broncos are second in total defense and third in scoring defense.
Also, the Broncos don’t really ask a ton from Bo Nix. Stay ahead of the chains, make the safe throws, don’t turn the ball over. There were five games this season where Nix completed less than 20 pass attempts. It’s not like the Broncos lost Mahomes or Josh Allen. If Stidham is able to manage the game without making the big mistake, the Broncos can lean on their defense to keep things close and have a chance to steal late. I’ll take a shot with the points.