Browns vs Texans Prediction
Houston comes into this matchup after winning three of their last four games and they have scored at least 34 points in two of their last three. The Texans are 3-1 on the road this year, while the Browns are 3-0 at home. Cleveland has lost two in a row, but they will have Watson back under center here. The Browns are 5-4 on the season, but I don’t think they are as good as their record would suggest. I think Houston will get the win in this matchup, but I like Cleveland to keep it close.
Cleveland Browns Betting Preview
The Cleveland Browns are 5-4 this season after they lost to the Saints in overtime by a score of 23-22 in their last game. Cleveland was tied 3-3 at halftime, but they needed a field goal late in the fourth to force overtime, where they lost on a missed two point conversion. The Browns were out gained by a total of 396-355, went 8-18 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 2-0 in the game. Shedeur Sanders threw for 297 yards and two touchdowns, while Denzel Boston caught six passes for 98 yards. Quinshon Judkins rushed 15 times for 43 yards in the game.
Prior to that loss, Cleveland lost to the Steelers by a score of 27-6, but did defeat the Titans by a score of 27-24 before that. The Browns have scored 17.9 points per game with 210.4 passing yards and 97.3 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 21.8 points against per game this season. Deshaun Watson has thrown for 1,806 yards with seven touchdowns and three interceptions, while Denzel Boston has 32 receptions for 507 yards and three scores. Quinshon Judkins has rushed 116 times for 385 yards and three touchdowns this season.
Houston Texans Betting Preview
The Houston Texans are 3-5 this year after they defeated the Chargers by a score of 44-22 in their last game. Houston led 24-9 at halftime and they added 20 points in the second half in the lopsided win. The Texans out gained Los Angeles by a total of 485-315, went 8-14 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 2-1 in the game. CJ Stroud threw for 384 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception, while Kayshon Boutte caught four passes for 125 yards and two scores. Woody Marks rushed 18 times for 70 yards in the win.
Prior to that game, Houston lost to the Giants by a score of 27-21, but did defeat the Jaguars by a score of 34-31 before that. The Texans have scored 26.1 points per game with 269.4 passing yards and 87.1 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 24.0 points against per game this season. CJ Stroud has thrown for 2,251 yards with 16 touchdowns and two interceptions, while Nico Collins has 28 receptions for 384 yards and four scores. Woody Marks has rushed 95 times for 341 yards and two touchdowns this year.
Why the Cleveland Browns will win
- The Browns have won each of their last four games as home underdogs.
- The Texans have lost each of their last six games without Jadeveon Clowney.
- The Texans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games without Jadeveon Clowney.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Browns’ last six games at Huntington Bank Field.
- The Texans have lost the first quarter in each of their last three games as favorites following a win.
- The Browns have scored the first touchdown in eight of their last nine Week 10 games.
- The home team has won the first half in seven of the Browns’ last eight Week 10 games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Texans’ last eight games without Jadeveon Clowney have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of the Browns’ last six games without Isaiah McGuire have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the last three Sunday games at Huntington Bank Field have gone UNDER the total points line.
Cleveland Browns Player Prop Facts
- Jerry Jeudy has recorded 18+ receiving yards in 22 of his 23 previous appearances with his team as a home underdog against AFC opponents.
- Dylan Sampson has recorded 48+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Browns’ last three games.
- Deshaun Watson has recorded 25+ completions in each of his last four home appearances against AFC South opponents.
- Deshaun Watson has recorded 234+ passing yards in eight of his last nine home appearances against AFC South opponents.
- Shedeur Sanders has recorded 20+ rushing yards in each of his last five appearances following a loss.
- Heading into Week 10, Tyson Campbell ranks T1st in the league for fumbles recovered (2) this season.
Houston Texans Player Prop Facts
- Nico Collins has scored a touchdown in each of the Texans’ last three games against the Browns.
- C.J. Stroud has recorded 21+ completions in each of his four previous November road appearances.
- C.J. Stroud has recorded 257+ passing yards in each of his four previous November road appearances.
- Dalton Schultz has recorded 31+ receiving yards in eight of his last nine November appearances with his team as a favorite.
- C.J. Stroud has recorded 12+ rushing yards in each of his last four November appearances with the Texans as favorites.
- Xavier Hutchinson has recorded 37+ rushing and receiving yards in four of the Texans’ last five regular season games as favorites against AFC opponents.
- Heading into Week 10, C.J. Stroud has recorded the equal-most passing touchdowns in a single game this season (5 vs Chargers, Week 9).
Matchup/League Facts
- Heading into Week 10, the Browns rank 32nd in the NFL in red zone percentage (39.1%) this season.
- Heading into Week 10, the Browns are the only team to overturn multiple 10+ point 1st quarter deficits to win this season.
- Texans – five different players have recorded 80+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 10.
- Texans – five different players have recorded 90+ receiving yards in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 10.
Positive Trends
After reviewing the trends, I am comfortable backing the Browns here. Cleveland has won four games in a row as a home underdog and they have also been great coming back from early deficits. Houston has started slow in their first game after a win as a favorite, which is exactly what Cleveland needs to start strong. Take Cleveland and the points at home in this critical AFC matchup.