The New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills meet Sunday in NFL action from Highmark Stadium. Here’s a Bills vs Patriots prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Bills vs Patriots pick.
New England Patriots Betting Preview
New England has been a mixed bag on the field this year, considering their 2-2 record overall through four games. That said, the Patriots’ losses have each come by just one score. In the opener New England fell to the Las Vegas Raiders 20-13, then came the first win of the year versus the rival Miami Dolphins 33-27. In week three the Pats fell once again, this time at home versus the Pittsburgh Steelers 21-14. New England had 369 yards on offense in the loss with 5.2 yards per play, 26 first downs and a 6-of-13 success rate on third-down tries. What really buried the Patriots were the five turnovers—five of which were lost fumbles.
In their latest outing last weekend versus the Carolina Panthers, the Patriots were able to get back into the win column. New England scored points in every quarter—including 21 in the second quarter alone—on the way to a 42-13 win. QB Drake Maye finished on a 14-of-17 line for 203 yards and two scores, while Rhamondre Stevenson was the top rusher with nine carries for 38 yards. Stefon Diggs was the top receiver with his six catches for 101 yards in the win.
Buffalo Bills Betting Preview
Over on the Bills’ side, they’ve been able to power through a 4-0 record thus far. Three of Buffalo’s four wins have come by double-digit margins, with the exception being a 41-40 home escape versus the Baltimore Ravens in the opener. Buffalo would then dispatch the New York Jets 30-10 and the Miami Dolphins 31-21 over the next two outings. In the Miami game, the Bills held the opposition to 276 yards (146 passing), 4.7 yards per play and 19 first downs but did give up 10-of-15 on third-down tries. The Bills offense generated 360 yards (203 passing) on the other side with 6.3 yards per play, 23 first downs and a 6-of-11 mark for third downs.
Last Sunday in their outing versus the New Orleans Saints, Buffalo held a 21-16 edge going into the fourth quarter. The Bills were able to post a 10-3 run from there in a 31-19 win. QB Josh Allen finished with a 16-of-22 line for 209 yards, two scores and a pick. Tops in rushing was James Cook with 22 carries for 117 yards and a touchdown of his own, while leading receiver Khalil Shakir had five catches for 69 yards and a touchdown.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Betting Trends: Week 5
Why the Buffalo Bills will win
- The Bills have won each of their last 13 home games.
- The Patriots have lost each of their last 12 games following a win.
- The Bills have covered the spread in four of their last five home games against AFC opponents.
- The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games following a win.
- The Bills have won the first quarter in seven of their last eight Week 5 games at Highmark Stadium.
- The Bills have scored the first touchdown in each of their last three Sunday games played on the East Coast.
- The Patriots have lost the first half in each of their last eight games as underdogs following a win.
Why the New England Patriots will win
- The Patriots have won 10 of their last 11 October games against the Bills.
- The Bills have lost nine of their last 10 Week 5 games against AFC East opponents.
- The Patriots have covered the spread in each of their last four games against the Bills.
- The Bills have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five home games against AFC East opponents.
- The Patriots have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four games against the Bills.
- The Patriots have won the first half in 11 of their last 12 road games against the Bills following a home win.
- The Bills have lost the first quarter in each of their last four October games as favorites against AFC opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Bills’ last four home games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Six of the last seven games between AFC East teams have gone OVER the total points line.
- Five of the Patriots’ last six games in October have gone OVER the total points line.
Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts
- James Cook has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Bills’ last nine games played as favorites on the East Coast.
- Josh Allen has recorded 248+ passing yards in 12 of the Bills’ last 14 October games as favorites against AFC opponents.
- James Cook has recorded 102+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Bills’ last five games.
- Josh Allen has scored two or more touchdowns in four of the Bills’ last five games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
- Josh Palmer has recorded 30+ receiving yards in 14 of his last 16 appearances against division opponents.
- James Cook has recorded 108+ rushing yards in each of the Bills’ last four games as favorites.
- Josh Allen has recorded 21+ completions in seven of the Bills’ last eight games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
- Heading into Week 5, James Cook ranks 1st in the NFL in rushing touchdowns (5) this season.
New England Patriots Player Prop Facts
- Stefon Diggs has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last five appearances with a total points line of at least 50.0.
- Stefon Diggs has recorded 40+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 17 October appearances against AFC opponents.
- Stefon Diggs has recorded 40+ receiving yards in each of his last 17 October appearances against AFC opponents.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded 34+ rushing yards in each of his five previous regular season appearances against the Bills.
- Drake Maye has recorded 222+ passing yards in each of the Patriots’ last three road games against AFC East opponents.
- Drake Maye has recorded 28+ completions in each of the Patriots’ last four games following a win.
- Heading into Week 5, Antonio Gibson is the only player in the NFL to have a kick return touchdown this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Bills – one different players have recorded 100+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 5.
- Heading into Week 5, the Bills rank 1st in the NFL in rushing yards per game (163.5) this season.
- Patriots – four different players have recorded 70+ receiving yards in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 5.
- Patriots – four different players have recorded 80+ receiving yards in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 5.
Bills vs Patriots Prediction
I’ll take a stab on the Patriots. New England didn’t have a ton of trouble versus the struggling Panthers last weekend, unless you count a pretty tepid 16 first downs or a 3-of-9 success rate on third-down conversions. Otherwise the Pats were solid, notching 307 total yards (203 passing and 6.4 yards per play. The defense surrendered 326 yards on the other side (197 passing) with 5.0 yards per play, 21 first downs and 5-of-14 on third-down tries. New England has been a tale of two teams this year, with 33 or more points in their two wins alongside 14 or fewer points in their two losses.
As for Buffalo, they didn’t exactly look overwhelming in their home win over the Saints, thanks mostly to the 11 penalties for 55 yards and the rough 3-of-10 on third downs. The Bills defense did most of the work, holding New Orleans to 109 passing yards and 5-of-13 on third-down tries. Buffalo needs to get going quickly against New England if they don’t want the Pats to hang around as well.