Lions vs Patriots Prediction
I’ll take a stab on the Patriots here. New England has their work cut out for them in this one after giving up 45 points in a home loss to the Packers last weekend. In that one the Pats posted 22 first downs with 387 total yards and four turnovers in the defeat. The New England defense gave up 22 first downs on the other side with 478 total yards and zero takeaways. The Patriots normally aren’t that mistake-prone, especially at home. Additionally, New England has been scoring pretty well lately, with 24 or more points in six straight games (a 4-2 run). A good showing here would go a long way but anything’s possible in a game on the other side of the pond.
As for the Lions, they weren’t exactly lighting the world on fire offensively versus a struggling Dolphins team last weekend, posting just 16 first downs with 270 yards and nine penalties for 63 yards overall. Detroit held it down on defense though, giving up just 228 yards and 12 first downs along the way. The Lions are sitting on a four-game win streak right now, and they’ve given up fewer than 18 points in three straight. The Patriots need to get their offense cooking quickly here or it’ll be a long day in Germany.
Game Info, Stats and Previews
The New England Patriots and the Detroit Lions meet Sunday in NFL action from Allianz Arena in Munich. Here’s a collection of relevant information and reasoning for a sound Lions vs Patriots prediction. We have looked at this information from a betting perspective and attempted to determine the best Lions vs Patriots pick.
New England Patriots Betting Preview
The Patriots have had their ups and downs this year but they’ve been able to stay above the .500 mark overall. New England opened with a shaky 1-2 stretch featuring losses to Seattle and Jacksonville around a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. After that came three straight wins over Buffalo, Las Vegas and New York. The next three games were a 1-2 run with a win over the Dolphins in between losses to the Bears and Packers. That gives New England a 5-4 run in the books overall.
In their November 8 matchup versus the Green Bay Packers, New England gave up two touchdowns in the first quarter and another in the second, limping to the break with a 24-14 deficit. The Patriots managed a couple of trips to the end zone in the second half but still lost 45-27 in the end. QB Drake Maye was 21-of-38 for 299 yards and three scores with three picks. Corey Kiner led the rush with eight carries for 55 yards and a TD, while DeMario Douglas had five catches for 102 yards in the win.
Detroit Lions Betting Preview
Over on the Detroit side, they kicked off their season with a sketchy 2-2 run. The wins in that time came versus the Saints and Jets; otherwise it was losses to the Buffalo Bills and Carolina Panthers. The Lions have since won four straight outings. Those victories have come courtesy of the Cardinals, Packers, Vikings and Dolphins in succession. Over eight games the Lions are 6-2 on the season so far.
Matched up against Miami last weekend the Lions were only able to muster a couple of field goals in the first half, posting a 6-3 edge in the locker room. Detroit finally got into the end zone in the third and rode that to a 19-9 road win.
Why the Detroit Lions will win
- The Lions have won each of their last seven day games.
- The Patriots have lost each of their last five games against NFC opponents on a winning streak.
- The Lions have covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 games without Jameson Williams.
- The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games.
- The Lions have won the first half in six of their last seven day games.
- The Lions have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five Week 10 day games.
- The Patriots have lost the first quarter in three of their last four games against NFC opponents.
Why the New England Patriots will win
- The Patriots have won each of their last six day games following a loss.
- The Lions have lost three of their last four games as favorites without Brock Wright.
- The Patriots have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as underdogs without Rhamondre Stevenson.
- The Lions have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games as favorites without Brian Branch.
- The Patriots have won the first quarter in three of their last four games as underdogs against NFC North opponents.
- The Patriots have won the first half in seven of their last eight Sunday games against the Lions.
- The Patriots have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five games as underdogs following a loss.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Patriots’ last seven games as underdogs without Rhamondre Stevenson have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the Lions’ last five games without Brian Branch have gone OVER the total points line.
Detroit Lions Player Prop Facts
- Isaac TeSlaa has recorded 26+ receiving yards in three of the Lions’ last four games against AFC opponents.
- Jahmyr Gibbs has recorded 99+ rushing yards in five of the Lions’ last six day games.
- Jared Goff has recorded 25+ completions in nine of the Lions’ last 12 games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
- Jahmyr Gibbs has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Lions’ last 11 day games against AFC opponents.
- Jahmyr Gibbs has scored the last touchdown in each of the Lions’ last three games as favorites against AFC opponents.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has recorded 82+ rushing and receiving yards in five of the Lions’ last six games against AFC East opponents.
- Heading into Week 10, Jahmyr Gibbs ranks T1st in the NFL in touchdowns (11) this season.
New England Patriots Player Prop Facts
- Drake Maye has recorded 22+ completions in five of the Patriots’ last six games as underdogs.
- Drake Maye has recorded 270+ passing yards in five of the Patriots’ last six games against NFC opponents.
- Mack Hollins has recorded 41+ receiving yards in each of his last seven appearances with the Patriots as underdogs.
- TreVeyon Henderson has recorded 27+ rushing yards in each of his four previous appearances in regular season day games against NFC opponents.
- TreVeyon Henderson has recorded 29+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 12 appearances in regular season day games.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has scored a touchdown in each of the Patriots’ last four games against teams that held a winning record.
- Heading into Week 10, Drake Maye is the only player in the league to record two or more passing touchdowns in six consecutive appearances this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Heading into Week 10, the Lions rank 32nd in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (260.9) this season.
- Heading into Week 10, the Lions rank 1st in the NFL in Q3 points per game (8.5) this season.
- Patriots – 12 different players have recorded at least one touchdown this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 10.
- Patriots – four different players have recorded 50+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 10.