In this article, we will formulate a Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints prediction for this NFL game on Monday, December 23rd at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 16 matchup.
Green Bay Packers Betting Preview
The Green Bay Packers are 10-4 this season after they defeated Seattle by a score of 30-13 in their last game. Green Bay led 20-3 at the half and they were able to keep a comfortable distance in the second half for the win. The Packers outgained Seattle by a total of 369-208, won the turnover battle 2-1, and went 5-12 on third down in the game. Jordan Love threw for 229 yards and two touchdowns, while Josh Jacobs rushed for 94 yards and one score in the win.
Prior to that game, the Packers lost to Detroit by a score of 34-31 but did beat Miami, San Francisco, and Chicago before that. The GB offense has scored 27.1 points per game with 231.4 passing yards and 144.4 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 20.5 points per game this season. Jordan Love has completed 63.7% of his passes for 2,953 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, while Jayden Reed has caught 49 passes for 727 yards and six scores this year.
New Orleans Saints Betting Preview
The New Orleans Saints are 5-9 this year after they lost to Washington by a score of 20-19 in their last game. New Orleans trailed 20-7 in the fourth quarter, but they scored with no time remaining, before getting stopped on the two-point conversion. The Saints were outgained by a total of 326-245, lost the turnover battle 1-0, and went 3-11 on third down in the game. Spencer Rattler threw for 135 yards and one touchdown, while Kendre Miller rushed for 46 yards on nine carries.
Prior to that game, the Saints defeated the Giants by a score of 14-11 but did lose to the Rams by a score of 21-14 before that. New Orleans has scored 22.1 points per game with 210.2 passing yards and 124.4 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 22.3 points per game this season. The starting quarterback for the Saints is up in the air, but Carr is not expected back, so we should see Rattler or Haener under center, while Alvin Kamara is the leading rusher and leading receiver.
Why the Packers will beat the Saints
- The Packers have won each of their last 10 games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Saints have lost each of their last six Monday games as underdogs.
- The Saints have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight Monday games.
- The Packers have covered the spread in each of their last four home games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Saints have won the first quarter in two of their last three games as heavy underdogs (>+7.0 points).
- The favorites have won the first half in nine of the Packers’ last 10 Week 16 games.
- The Packers have scored the first touchdown in each of their last eight games as favorites.
Why the Saints will beat the Packers
- The underdogs have won each of the last three games between the Saints and Packers.
- The Packers have lost three of their last four games as favorites against NFC South opponents.
- The Packers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games as favorites against NFC South opponents.
- The Saints have covered the spread in five of their last six games as road underdogs against NFC opponents.
- The Saints have won the first quarter in four of their last five Week 16 games against NFC opponents.
- The Saints have won the first half in five of their last six games against NFC opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Saints’ last six Monday games has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Six of the Packers’ last seven games in December have gone OVER the total points line.
- Three of the last four Monday games at Lambeau Field have gone UNDER the total points line.
Green Bay Packers Player Prop Facts
- Josh Jacobs has recorded 94+ rushing and receiving yards in seven of his eight previous December appearances with his team as a favorite.
- Josh Jacobs has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Packers’ last six games as favorites.
- Christian Watson has recorded 46+ receiving yards in each of his six previous December appearances.
- Jordan Love has recorded 258+ passing yards in five of the Packers’ last six home games against NFC opponents.
- Josh Jacobs has recorded 93+ rushing yards in each of his last four December appearances with his team as a favorite.
- Jordan Love has thrown two or more touchdowns in each of the Packers’ last seven games as home favorites.
- Jordan Love has recorded 20+ completions in 13 of his last 14 home appearances.
- Heading into Week 16, Xavier McKinney ranks T1st in the NFL in interceptions (7) this season.
New Orleans Saints Player Prop Facts
- Derek Carr has recorded 239+ passing yards in seven of his last eight appearances with his team as a road underdog against NFC opponents.
- Alvin Kamara has recorded 35+ receiving yards in each of the Saints’ last six road games.
- Jamaal Williams has recorded 25+ rushing yards in each of his last six appearances with his team as a road underdog against NFC North opponents.
- Juwan Johnson has scored a touchdown in each of the Saints’ last three December road games.
- Jamaal Williams has recorded 37+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last eight appearances with his team as a road underdog against NFC North opponents.
- Derek Carr has thrown two or more touchdowns in each of his last five Monday appearances with his team as an underdog.
- Derek Carr has recorded 20+ completions in eight of his last nine December appearances with his team as a road underdog.
- Heading into Week 16, Alvin Kamara has recorded the equal-most rushing touchdowns in a single game this season (3 vs Cowboys, Week 2).
Matchup/League Facts
- Heading into Week 16, the Packers rank 1st in the NFL in Q1 opponent points per game (2.4) this season.
- Heading into Week 16, the Packers rank T1st in the NFL in Q1 win percentage (71.4) this season.
- Heading into Week 16, the Saints rank 31st in the NFL in average yards per punt (44.0) this season.
- Heading into Week 16, the Saints rank 30th in the NFL in yards allowed per game (376.6) this season.
Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints Prediction
Green Bay comes into this matchup after winning four of their last five games, but they continue to trail the Vikings and Lions in the NFC North. The Packers have scored at least 30 points in four straight games but will face a pretty solid New Orleans defense. The Saints have allowed 20 points or fewer in four of their last five, but their offense is a major issue right now with Rattler or Haener under center. I do think the Saints’ defense will step up in this contest, but I have little faith in their offense. Take the under here.