In this article, we will formulate a Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills prediction for this NFL game on Sunday, October 6th at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 5 matchup.
Houston Texans Betting Preview
The Houston Texans are 3-1 this year after they defeated Jacksonville by a score of 24-20 in their last game. Houston trailed 20-17 in the fourth quarter, but they scored late in the game for the win. The Texans outgained Jacksonville by a total of 435-313, lost the turnover battle 1-0, and went 7-13 on third down in the game. CJ Stroud threw for 345 yards and two touchdowns, while Nico Collins caught 12 passes for 151 yards and one score.
Houston also has wins over Indianapolis and Chicago but did lose to Minnesota by a score of 34-7. The Houston offense has scored 19.8 points per game with 257.8 passing yards and 106.8 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 23.5 points per game this season. The Texans have gone 40% on third down and 5-7 on fourth down so far this season. CJ Stroud has completed 67.6% of his passes for 1,054 yards, six touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Nico Collins has caught 30 passes for 489 yards and two scores.
Buffalo Bills Betting Preview
The Buffalo Bills are 3-1 this season after they lost to Baltimore by a score of 35-10 last week. Buffalo cut the deficit to 21-10 right after halftime but allowed the last 14 points in the game for the blowout loss. The Bills were outgained by a total of 427-236, tied the turnover battle at one, and went 3-13 on third down in the game. Josh Allen threw for 180 yards on 16 completions, while Khalil Shakir caught four passes for 62 yards.
Buffalo had won their first three games against Arizona, Miami, and Jacksonville to start the season. The Buffalo offense has scored 30.5 points per game with 195.5 passing yards and 110.3 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 20.8 points per game this season. The Bills have gone 35.7% on third down and 6-6 on fourth down so far this season. Josh Allen has completed 69.3% of his passes for 814 yards and seven touchdowns, while James Cook has rushed for 227 yards and three scores.
Why the Bills will cover
- The Bills have won each of their last six road games before a Division game.
- The Texans have lost each of their last six games against AFC East opponents.
- The Texans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games.
- The Bills have covered the spread in five of their last six games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Bills have won the first quarter in four of their last five road games following a road loss.
- The Bills have won the first half in six of their last seven games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Bills have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five games against the Texans.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Texans’ last five games in October has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of the Bills’ last four games as road favorites following a loss has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Six of the last seven Sunday games at NRG Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
Houston Texans Player Prop Facts
- Nico Collins has scored at least one touchdown in eight of his last nine home appearances against AFC opponents.
- Nico Collins has scored the last touchdown in three of his last four regular-season appearances with the Texans as home underdogs against AFC opponents.
- Nico Collins has recorded 80+ receiving yards in each of the Texans’ last six regular season games.
- Dameon Pierce has recorded 34+ rushing yards in each of the Texans’ last eight October games.
- Dameon Pierce has recorded 34+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Texans’ last eight October games.
- C.J. Stroud has recorded 280+ passing yards in each of his last four regular-season appearances with the Texans as underdogs against AFC opponents.
- C.J. Stroud has recorded 24+ completions in three of the Texans’ last four regular-season games against AFC opponents.
- C.J. Stroud has thrown two or more touchdowns in each of his four previous appearances with the Texans as home underdogs.
- Nico Collins ranks 1st in the NFL in receiving yards (489) this season.
Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts
- James Cook has recorded 102+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Bills’ last four games following a loss.
- Josh Allen has recorded 248+ passing yards in nine of the Bills’ last 10 games against AFC South opponents.
- James Cook has recorded 67+ rushing yards in each of the Bills’ last six games as favorites following a loss.
- Khalil Shakir has scored a touchdown in each of the Bills’ last four games as favorites.
- Khalil Shakir has recorded 54+ receiving yards in each of the Bills’ last four regular-season games against AFC opponents.
- Josh Allen has scored two touchdowns in three of the Bills’ last four Sunday games as favorites.
- Josh Allen has thrown two or more touchdowns in each of the Bills’ last eight games in October.
- Josh Allen has recorded 26+ completions in each of the Bills’ last five road games as slight favorites (<-3.5 points).
- Rasul Douglas is just one away from 20 career interceptions.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Texans rank 2nd in the NFL in Q2 opponent points per game (2.5) this season.
- The Texans rank T2nd in the NFL in Q2 win percentage (75.0) this season.
- The Bills rank 1st in the NFL in average kickoff return (36.7 yards) this season.
- The Bills rank T1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage (100.0%) this season.
Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills Prediction
Buffalo comes into this matchup after getting dominated on Sunday night and they will try to bounce back here. The Bills looked very good in their first three games, but they never had a chance against Baltimore after their fast start. Houston is also 3-1 to start the year, but their wins have been less convincing. The Texans have struggled to pick up wins against Jacksonville, Chicago, and Indianapolis, while they were blown out by 27 points in Minnesota. This should be a very entertaining game, but I think the Bills have been the better team. Take Buffalo here.