Colts vs Dolphins Prediction
I’m going to stay with the Colts here, but there’s not a lot to get excited about overall. Indianapolis is coming off yet another loss (their fifth straight) versus the Dallas Cowboys. In that one the Colts gave up a late lead and committed nine penalties for 67 yards. Indianapolis posted just 15 first downs and a 3-of-13 success rate on third-down tries alongside 271 total yards and a pair of turnovers. The Colts defense gave up 508 yards on the other side but did pretty well on third downs (5-of-16) and the team benefitted from Dallas’ 14 penalties for 153 yards. Sure, Indianapolis is sitting on a rough losing streak and they’re not making the playoffs this season. That said, they’ve mostly been competitive in comparable matchups, and this is certainly a winnable game. If nothing else, this should be a good one to watch if you’re into parity.
As for Miami, they were able to keep Detroit in check on the scoreboard during their latest loss but couldn’t find the end zone at all. The Dolphins gave up just 270 total yards with 16 first downs and 3-of-12 on third-down tries. That said Miami posted just 228 yards, 12 first downs and 4-of-12 on third downs themselves, and the 11 penalties for 87 yards didn’t help either. The Dolphins have finished below 20 points in consecutive games now and six times in eight games overall. If the Colts can find any sort of offense here it’ll be tough for Miami to keep pace.
Game Info, Stats and Previews
The Miami Dolphins and the Indianapolis Colts meet Sunday in NFL action from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Here’s a collection of relevant information and reasoning for a sound Colts vs Dolphins prediction. We have looked at this information from a betting perspective and attempted to determine the best Colts vs Dolphins pick.
Miami Dolphins Betting Preview
The Dolphins haven’t had much luck in the win column this year, to say the least. Miami opened up their season on a rough five-game losing streak, falling to the Las Vegas Raiders, San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings and Cincinnati Bengals. After a win over the lowly Jets, the Dolphins have since fallen to the Patriots and Lions. Over eight games this year that gives Miami a rough 1-7 record.
Last weekend versus Detroit, the Dolphins managed a field goal in the first half and went into the break with a 6-3 deficit. Miami could only muster a couple more field goals in the second half and lost the game 19-9 at home. QB Malik Willis was 13-of-25 for 128 yards and a pick. Ollie Gordon was the lead rusher on 16 carries for 55 yards, while Caleb Douglas had six catches for 70 yards in the defeat.
Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview
Over on the Colts’ side, they haven’t been able to find much success this year either. Indy opened on a 2-2 run with losses to the Ravens and Chiefs before wins over the Texans and Commanders. Since then it’s been five straight losses to the Steelers, Titans, Vikings, Jaguars and Cowboys. In nine games this year the Colts are sitting on a pretty rough 2-7 record for their troubles.
Matched up against the Cowboys last weekend Indianapolis gave up a couple of second-quarter touchdowns for a 17-7 deficit at the break. The Colts were up by a field goal late, then gave up a late TD for a 27-23 loss.
Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts Betting Trends: Week 10
Why the Indianapolis Colts will win
- The Colts have won each of their last six games against AFC East opponents on a losing streak.
- The Dolphins have lost eight of their last nine games without Jaylen Wright.
- The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games against AFC South opponents.
- The Colts have covered the spread in each of their last five games as home favorites against AFC East opponents.
- The Colts have won the first quarter in five of their last six day games following a home loss.
- The Colts have won the first half in seven of their last eight games at Lucas Oil Stadium against teams that held a losing record.
- The Colts have scored the first touchdown in each of their last 10 games at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Why the Miami Dolphins will win
- The Colts have lost each of their last seven games before a Division game.
- The Dolphins have won each of their last four Week 10 games as underdogs.
- The Dolphins have covered the spread in each of their last six November games against AFC opponents.
- The Colts have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as favorites against AFC opponents.
- The Colts have lost the first quarter in three of their last four games as favorites.
- The Dolphins have won the first half in each of their last seven November games against AFC opponents.
- The Dolphins have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six Week 10 games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Dolphins’ last eight day games against AFC South opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of the Colts’ last four home games against the Dolphins have gone UNDER the total points line.
Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Facts
- Jonathan Taylor has recorded 94+ rushing yards in each of the Colts’ last eight games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
- Jonathan Taylor has recorded 97+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Colts’ last eight games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
- Jonathan Taylor has scored two or more touchdowns in three of the Colts’ last four games as favorites against teams that held a losing record.
- Jonathan Taylor has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Colts’ last 11 games as favorites against teams that held a losing record.
- Daniel Jones has recorded 210+ passing yards in four of the Colts’ last five games against AFC opponents.
- Keenan Allen has recorded 44+ receiving yards in each of his last eight home appearances against AFC East opponents.
- Daniel Jones has recorded 22+ completions in four of the Colts’ last five games against AFC opponents.
- Heading into Week 10, Spencer Shrader ranks T1st in the NFL in made field goals (22) this season.
Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts
- Malik Willis has recorded 208+ passing yards in five of his last six appearances against AFC opponents.
- Chris Bell has recorded 25+ receiving yards in four of the Dolphins’ last five games against AFC opponents.
- Malik Willis has recorded 37+ rushing yards in six of his last seven appearances with his team as an underdog against AFC opponents.
- Ollie Gordon II has recorded 88+ rushing and receiving yards in three of the Dolphins’ last four games following a loss.
- Ollie Gordon II has scored a touchdown in four of the Dolphins’ last five games following a loss.
- Heading into Week 10, Chop Robinson ranks T6th in the NFL in quarterback hurries (8) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Heading into Week 10, the Colts have suffered the equal-most losses when leading after Q3 this season (3).
- Heading into Week 10, the Colts have suffered the equal-most losses when leading at HT this season (4).
- Dolphins – three different players have recorded 60+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 10.
- Dolphins – three different players have recorded 70+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 10.