The Miami Dolphins and the Indianapolis Colts meet Sunday in NFL action from Lucas Oil Stadium. This will be the regular-season opener for both teams. Here’s a Colts vs Dolphins prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Colts vs Dolphins pick.
Miami Dolphins Betting Preview
The Dolphins took a step back in their 2024 campaign, failing to improve (or meet) their 11-6 run from the season before. Miami ended up limping to an 8-9 overall record, landing in second place in the AFC East behind the Buffalo Bills. That record wasn’t good enough for the postseason either, marking the first time in three years that the Dolphins failed to get into the playoffs. It was also the team’s first losing season since 2019. Six losses in seven games near the beginning of the year created a hole that Miami couldn’t dig themselves out of.
In the 2025 preseason opener, the Dolphins took on the Chicago Bears. Miami held a 14-10 advantage by halftime but eventually had to settle for a 24-24 tie in the end. The Dolphins’ Quinn Ewers led the way on 91 yards from a rough 5-of-18 passing, and Ollie Gordon rushed for 33 yards and a score on eight carries.
Game two went better for Miami as they hit the road to take on the Detroit Lions. Despite going into the fourth quarter with a 17-14 deficit, the Dolphins emerged victorious 24-17 after 10 unanswered points. This time Ewers was better on 11-of-17 for 116 yards and two scores. Gordon again led the rush (50 yards on 10 carries), while Theo Wease had 80 yards and two TDs from six receptions.
In game three versus the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Dolphins were able to outscore the opposition 6-0 in the second half along the way to a 14-6 win. Tua Tagovailoa got some work in, tossing 49 yards and a score on 4-of-8 passing. Mike Boone rushed seven times for 27 yards and a rush score, while Malik Washington caught three balls for 41 yards and a touchdown. Zach Wilson added 80 passing yards on 9-of-13 completions.
Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview
Over on the Colts’ side, they suffered a similar middling fate last season. Indianapolis also went just 8-9 overall, failing to reach the 9-8 run from 2023. Indianapolis stretched it to nine years without an AFC South title, landing in second place among the division. The Colts were knocked out of the playoffs by the lowly New York Giants in Week 17.
Indianapolis took a preseason opener loss to the Ravens 24-16 at M&T Bank Stadium. The Colts’ Daniel Jones went 10-of-21 for 144 yards in that one, while Ulysses Bentley led the rush on 35 yards off seven totes. Game two was another loss for the Colts, this time 23-19 at home against the Green Bay Packers. Indianapolis got 101 yards from 7-of-11 from Jones this time. Coleman Owen led the receivers on four catches for 46 yards.
Matched up against the Cincinnati Bengals in preseason game three, Indianapolis looked pretty good, scoring double-digit points in each of the first three quarters during a 41-14 blowout. Bentley scored a couple of rush touchdowns among eight carries for 32 yards.
Why the Indianapolis Colts will win
- The Colts have won each of their last eight games as favorites against AFC opponents.
- The Dolphins have lost each of their last eight games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
- The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
- The Colts have covered the spread in each of their last four games as home favorites against AFC East opponents.
- The home team has won the first half in seven of the Dolphins’ last eight games.
- The Colts have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six games as favorites against AFC East opponents.
- The Dolphins have won the first quarter in four of their last five games as slight underdogs (<+3.5 points).
Why the Miami Dolphins will win
- The Dolphins have won five of their last six road openers as underdogs against AFC opponents.
- The Colts have lost 10 of their last 11 season openers.
- The Colts have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 season openers.
- The Dolphins have covered the spread in six of their last seven September road games against AFC opponents.
- The Colts have lost the first half in each of their last four season openers.
- The Dolphins have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four road games against the Colts.
- The Colts have lost the first quarter in eight of their last 10 games as home favorites against AFC opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Colts’ last six games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
- Twelve of the Dolphins’ last 15 road games in September have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Twelve of the last 16 Sunday games at Lucas Oil Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
Colts vs Dolphins Prediction
I’ll lean toward Miami. The Dolphins came out of their final preseason game with some optimism after Tagovailoa’s touchdown, but the final numbers didn’t look great. Miami posted just 239 yards of offense (152 passing) with 16 first downs and 4-of-12 on third-down tries. The defense was great on the other side though, holding Jacksonville to just 207 yards (86 passing), 12 first downs and 3.9 yards per play. All of that said, it was just preseason, and now the real work begins. If the Dolphins are on point though, the Colts should serve as a manageable starting opponent here—even on the road.