Jets vs Bills Prediction
Buffalo rolls into this matchup on a four game winning streak and they have allowed a total of 16 points in their last two games. The Bills are 4-0 on the road this year, while the Jets are 1-3 at home. New York has dropped four in a row and they have allowed 35+ in two straight. The Jets are really struggling on defense and now will have to face one of the best offenses in the NFL. This is a big number to cover on the road, especially on a short week, but I just don’t see New York scoring enough here. Take the Bills to cover in this one.
New York Jets Betting Preview
The New York Jets are 2-7 this season after they lost to the Chiefs by a score of 35-12 in their last game. New York trailed 14-12 at halftime and they were outscored 21-0 in the second half in the loss. The Jets were out gained by a total of 391-229, went 2-12 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 2-1 in the game. Geno Smith threw for 165 yards, while Omar Cooper Jr caught eight passes for 58 yards. Breece Hall rushed 15 times for 61 yards in the loss.
Prior to that game, New York lost to the Raiders by a score of 38-33 and the Dolphins by a score of 28-25. The Jets have scored 20.2 points per game with 204.7 passing yards and 105.2 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 24.8 points against per game this season. Geno Smith has thrown for 2,078 yards with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions, while Garrett Wilson has 43 receptions for 527 yards and three scores. Braelon Allen has rushed 120 times for 598 yards and three touchdowns this season.
Buffalo Bills Betting Preview
The Buffalo Bills are 7-1 this year after they defeated the Vikings by a score of 23-6 last week. Buffalo led 10-6 at halftime and pitched a shutout in the second half for the nice road win. The Bills out gained Minnesota by a total of 339-178, went 7-18 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 3-1 in the game. Josh Allen threw for 234 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while Khalil Shakir caught four passes for 58 yards. James Cook III rushed 31 times for 107 yards and one touchdown in the game.
Prior to that win, Buffalo defeated the Ravens by a score of 36-10 and the Raiders by a score of 33-30. The Bills have scored 32.0 points per game with 239.8 passing yards and 146.6 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 23.4 points against per game this season. Josh Allen has thrown for 2,027 yards with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions, while James Cook III has rushed 169 times for 814 yards and eight scores. Dalton Kincaid has caught 30 passes for 429 yards and two touchdowns this year.
Why the Buffalo Bills will win
- The Jets have lost each of their last eight games when playing with a rest advantage.
- The Bills have won 16 of their last 17 games against opponents on a losing streak.
- The Jets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight games against AFC East opponents.
- The Bills have covered the spread in each of their last five games against the Jets.
- The Jets have lost the first quarter in each of their last 10 day games against AFC East opponents.
- The Bills have won the first half in each of their last 10 games against the Jets.
- The Bills have scored the first touchdown in each of their last 10 games against the Jets.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the last nine games between AFC East teams have gone OVER the total points line.
- Nine of the Jets’ last 10 day games against AFC East opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
- Seven of the Bills’ last eight November games as road favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
New York Jets Player Prop Facts
- Breece Hall has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last three November home appearances.
- Geno Smith has recorded 21+ completions in each of his last four November appearances with his team as a home underdog.
- Geno Smith has recorded 238+ passing yards in each of his last six November home appearances.
- Breece Hall has recorded 54+ rushing yards in 14 of his last 16 appearances following a road loss.
- Braelon Allen has recorded 54+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Jets’ last six games.
- Tim Patrick has recorded 16+ receiving yards in each of his last 14 appearances with his team as an underdog following a loss.
- Heading into Week 10, David Bailey has recorded the equal-most sacks in a single game this season (3.0 vs Browns, Week 5).
Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts
- Dawson Knox has recorded 16+ receiving yards in each of his 13 previous November road appearances.
- Josh Allen has recorded 253+ passing yards in each of the Bills’ last seven day road games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
- Josh Allen has recorded 31+ rushing yards in 13 of the Bills’ last 14 road games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
- Josh Allen has recorded 22+ completions in each of the Bills’ last seven day road games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
- James Cook has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Bills’ last seven games.
- D.J. Moore has recorded 50+ rushing and receiving yards in 15 of his last 17 appearances with his team as a favorite against AFC opponents.
- Heading into Week 10, Amani Hooker ranks T1st in the NFL in interceptions (5) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Jets – two different players have recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 10.
- Jets – two different players have recorded 100+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 10.
- Bills – two different players have recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 10.
- Bills – two different players have recorded 100+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 10.
Positive Trends
As I look at the trends, I still like Buffalo to cover here. Buffalo has covered the spread in five straight games against the Jets and they have also dominated the first half in their last 10 games against New York. The Jets are 0-8 against the spread in their last eight games against the AFC East and their defense is playing like one of the worst in the NFL right now. Take Buffalo to cover on the road.