In this article, we will formulate a Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars prediction for this NFL game on Sunday, September 8th at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week one matchup.
Miami Dolphins Betting Preview
The Miami Dolphins were 11-6 last season and they finished second in the AFC East behind the Buffalo Bills. Miami started the season with a record of 9-3 through 12 games, but they finished just 2-3 and lost the tiebreaker in the AFC East. Miami lost to Kansas City by a score of 26-7 in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Tua was able to stay pretty healthy throughout the season and the offense averaged 29.2 points per game, while the defense allowed 23.0 points per game.
Miami was 2-1 in the preseason, which started with a 20-13 win over Atlanta in their first game. The Dolphins defeated Washington in their second game by a score of 13-6 but lost to Tampa Bay in the finale by a score of 24-14. Tua will be back under center once again for this team and he will have a great wide receiving corps of Hill, Waddle, and Beckham Jr. Mostert is also back at running back, so the offense should be very good this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Preview
The Jacksonville Jaguars went 9-8 last year and they finished second in the AFC South behind Houston and tied with Indianapolis. Jacksonville started the season with a record of 8-3 through their first 11 games, but they finished with a record of just 1-5 and missed out on a playoff spot. Jacksonville was able to keep Lawrence relatively healthy last season, but he did miss one game. The Jaguars’ offense averaged 22.2 points per game, while the defense allowed 21.8 points per game.
Jacksonville was 3-0 in the preseason, which began with a 26-13 win over Kansas City in the opener. The Jaguars defeated Tampa Bay by a score of 20-7 in the second game and beat Atlanta by a score of 31-0 in the third game. Trevor Lawrence is back at the quarterback spot this year for the Jags and they will need more consistency out of him if they want to have a better season. I don’t love the Jaguars receiving corps, which is led by Kirk, Davis, and Thomas Jr., but they do have Etienne Jr. at running back.
Why the Jaguars will cover
- The underdogs have won each of the last four games between the Jaguars and Dolphins.
- The Dolphins have lost six of their last nine games as favorites against AFC South opponents.
- The Jaguars have covered the spread in each of their last six September games as road underdogs against AFC opponents.
- The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games before a Division game.
- The Dolphins have lost the first quarter in three of their last four Week 1 home games.
- The road team has won the first half in 10 of the Jaguars’ last 12 Week 1 games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Jaguars’ last five season openers has gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the last four Sunday games at Hard Rock Stadium has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of the Dolphins’ last four Sunday games at Hard Rock Stadium has gone UNDER the total points line.
Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts
- Raheem Mostert has scored two touchdowns in each of the Dolphins’ last three games as favorites against AFC opponents.
- Raheem Mostert has scored at least one touchdown in 11 of the Dolphins’ last 12 games as favorites.
- Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 285+ passing yards in eight of his last 10 Sunday appearances with the Dolphins as home favorites.
- Odell Beckham Jr. has recorded 36+ receiving yards in each of his 11 previous September appearances with his team as a favorite.
- Jeff Wilson Jr. has recorded 34+ rushing and receiving yards in 16 of his last 20 regular season appearances against AFC opponents.
- Jeff Wilson Jr. has recorded 21+ rushing yards in nine of his last 10 Sunday home appearances.
- Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 24+ completions in three of the Dolphins’ last four Sunday games as home favorites.
- Tua Tagovailoa ranked 1st in the NFL in passing yards (4624) last season.
Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Facts
- Gabriel Davis has scored a touchdown in each of his last three appearances with his team as an underdog on the East Coast.
- Trevor Lawrence has recorded 257+ passing yards in each of the Jaguars’ last seven games against AFC opponents.
- Travis Etienne has recorded 28+ receiving yards in nine of the Jaguars’ last 10 games against AFC opponents.
- Mac Jones has recorded 13+ rushing yards in each of his last four September appearances.
- Trevor Lawrence has recorded 25+ completions in each of the Jaguars’ last four games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points).
- Mac Jones has thrown two or more touchdowns in five of his last six appearances with his team as an underdog on the East Coast.
- Darnell Savage Jr. is just one away from 10 career interceptions.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Dolphins ranked 1st in the NFL in yards per game (401.3) last season.
- The Dolphins ranked 1st in the NFL in passing yards per game (265.5) last season.
- The Jaguars ranked 1st in the NFL in Q1 opponent points per game (2.5) last season.
- The Jaguars ranked 2nd in the NFL in kickoff return yards per game (40.5) last season.
Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction
Miami comes into this game with the home-field advantage and they are the favorite to get the win in this battle for Florida. The Dolphins should have a very good offensive attack this season and I think they are poised for another big regular season.
Jacksonville’s success rides on the consistency of Trevor Lawrence and I just don’t know if he is going to step up, especially with this wide receiver room. I do think Miami is going to pick up the win in this game, but I am going to take the Jaguars to keep it close, as the Dolphins might need a week to get the offense rolling.