The Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots meet Sunday in NFL action from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. Here’s a Patriots vs Bills prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Patriots vs Bills pick.
Buffalo Bills Betting Preview
The Bills posted wins over the Ravens, Jets, Dolphins and Saints in their first four games, then fell to the Patriots and Falcons ahead of the bye week. Following that open weekend, Buffalo hit a 4-2 run in the next half-dozen outings. The losses were versus the Dolphins and Texans; otherwise it was wins over the Panthers, Chiefs, Buccaneers and Steelers. In the first 12 games the Bills had an 8-4 overall record this year.
Last Sunday versus Cincinnati, the Bills were down 21-18 going into the final quarter. Buffalo rallied on a 21-13 run from there however, pulling off the comeback win 39-34. Leading the way was QB Josh Allen on 22-of-28 passing for 251 yards and three scores (and another TD rushing). James Cook had 18 carries for 80 yards, and Dawson Knox added six catches for 93 yards in the winning effort for Buffalo.
New England Patriots Betting Preview
Over on the Patriots’ side, they lost to the Raiders and Steelers in their first three games (with a lone win over Miami otherwise). New England has hit a nice win streak since then, taking out the Panthers, Bills, Saints, Titans, Browns, Falcons, Bucs, Jets, Bengals and Giants in succession. Through 13 games so far that gives the Patriots a very nice 11-2 overall record this year.
Matched up against the Giants back on December 1, the Patriots managed to power out a 33-15 blowout win at home. QB Drake Maye was 24-of-31 for 282 yards and two touchdowns, while leading rusher TreVeyon Henderson had 11 carries for 67 yards in the victory. Tops in receiving was Hunter Henry with four catches for 73 yards, and Rhamondre Stevenson chipped in three catches for 40 yards in the win as well.
Why the New England Patriots will win
- The Patriots have won each of their last 10 games.
- The Bills have lost five of their last six games as road favorites when playing with a rest disadvantage.
- The Bills have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games as road favorites when playing with a rest disadvantage.
- The Patriots have covered the spread in each of their last five games against the Bills.
- The Patriots have won the first half in each of their last 10 games.
- The Patriots have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four games as home underdogs against AFC East opponents.
- The Patriots have won the first quarter in each of their last four games as underdogs against AFC East opponents.
Why the Buffalo Bills will win
- The Bills have won each of their last 10 December games against AFC opponents.
- The Patriots have lost each of their last nine December home games against AFC opponents.
- The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games as underdogs without Anfernee Jennings.
- The Bills have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Bills have won the first quarter in three of their last four games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Bills have won the first half in each of their last six December road games against AFC opponents.
- The Bills have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six Week 15 games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the last eight games between teams from the same division have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the Patriots’ last seven games as underdogs without Rhamondre Stevenson have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the Bills’ last four road games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
New England Patriots Player Prop Facts
- TreVeyon Henderson has recorded 55+ rushing yards in each of the Patriots’ last six games.
- Drake Maye has recorded 259+ passing yards in each of the Patriots’ last six games.
- Drake Maye has recorded 21+ completions in five of the Patriots’ last six games against AFC opponents.
- Austin Hooper has recorded 11+ receiving yards in each of his last 22 appearances in games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
- Joshua Dobbs has scored a touchdown in each of his last four appearances against teams that held a winning record.
- Demario Douglas has recorded 31+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Patriots’ last six games.
- Heading into Week 15, Drake Maye has the highest completion percentage in a single game (min. 10 ATT) this season (91.3% vs Titans, Week 7).
Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts
- James Cook has scored two touchdowns in four of the Bills’ last five road games against teams that held a winning record.
- Josh Allen has recorded 22+ completions in each of the Bills’ last six road games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
- Josh Allen has recorded 253+ passing yards in 16 of the Bills’ last 17 road games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
- James Cook has recorded 85+ rushing yards in six of the Bills’ last seven road games.
- James Cook has recorded 111+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Bills’ last four games.
- Keon Coleman has recorded 23+ receiving yards in each of his seven previous appearances with the Bills as favorites following a home win.
- Josh Allen has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Bills’ last 11 day games against teams on a winning streak.
- Brandin Cooks has scored the last touchdown in three of his last four December road appearances against AFC opponents.
- Heading into Week 15, James Cook ranks 1st in the NFL in rushing attempts (249) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Patriots – two different players have recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 15.
- Patriots – seven different players have recorded 70+ receiving yards in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 15.
- Bills – eight different players have recorded 60+ receiving yards in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 15.
- Bills – five different players have recorded 90+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 15.
Patriots vs Bills Prediction
I’ll lean toward the Patriots. New England is coming off a bye week so they’ve had plenty of time to rest and prepare for this big divisional matchup. The Pats didn’t have too much issue with the two-win Giants in their last outing, notching 395 total yards, 21 first downs and just three penalties along the way. New England’s defense held New York to just 14 first downs and 239 total yards on the other side and scored a TD as well. That gives the Pats 23 or more points during every installment of this current nine-game win streak.
The last time these teams saw each other on October 5, the Pats bagged a tight 23-20 road win. New England gave up 363 yards and 25 first downs in that one, but also posted three takeaways on defense. Buffalo’s 11 penalties for 90 yards didn’t hurt matters, either. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another close game in the Gillette Stadium rematch, but overall I like the Patriots a little better cover/win-wise. I think they’ll keep the impressive winning run going.