In this article, we will formulate a New England Patriots vs Houston Texans prediction for this NFL game on Sunday, October 13th at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 6 matchup.
New England Patriots Betting Preview
The New England Patriots are 1-4 this season after they lost to Miami by a score of 15-10 in their last game. New England took a 10-3 lead in the third quarter, but they allowed the last 12 points in the game for the loss. The Patriots were outgained by a total of 372-299, won the turnover battle 2-0, and went 4-13 on third down in the game. Jacoby Brissett threw for 160 yards on 18 completions, while Rhamondre Stevenson rushed for 89 yards and one score.
New England also has losses against San Francisco, New York, and Seattle, but they did win their first game against Cincinnati by a score of 16-10. The NE offense has scored 12.4 points per game with 119.4 passing yards and 131.4 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 20.4 points per game this season. The Patriots have gone 32.4% on third down and 4-7 on fourth down through five games. The Patriots are planning to start Drake Maye under center in this game, while Rhamondre Stevenson has rushed for 356 yards and three scores.
Houston Texans Betting Preview
The Houston Texans are 4-1 this year after they defeated Buffalo by a score of 23-20 in their last game. Houston led 20-3 in the third quarter, but they needed a field goal as time expired for the win. The Texans outgained Buffalo by a total of 425-276, lost the turnover battle 2-0, and went 8-16 on third down in the game. CJ Stroud threw for 331 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while Stefon Diggs caught six passes for 82 yards.
Houston also has wins over Indianapolis, Chicago, and Jacksonville, but did pick up a loss against the Vikings on the road. The Houston offense has scored 20.4 points per game with 272.4 passing yards and 104.2 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 22.8 points per game this season. The Texans have gone 42.3% on third down and 5-8 on fourth down through five games. CJ Stroud has completed 68.9% of his passes for 1,385 yards, seven touchdowns, and three interceptions, while Stefon Diggs has caught 31 passes for 315 yards and two scores.
Why the Texans will cover
- The Patriots have lost each of their last 10 games played on the East Coast.
- The Texans have won each of their last eight October games as favorites against AFC opponents.
- The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 11 games at Gillette Stadium following a loss.
- The Texans have covered the spread in four of their last five games in October.
- The Texans have won the first half in each of their last eight games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Texans’ last six games in October has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of the Patriots’ last four games against AFC opponents has gone UNDER the total points line.
New England Patriots Player Prop Facts
- Jacoby Brissett has recorded 199+ passing yards in six of his last seven October home appearances.
- Kendrick Bourne has recorded 29+ rushing and receiving yards in nine of his last 10 Sunday appearances.
- Kendrick Bourne has recorded 29+ receiving yards in nine of his last 10 appearances.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has scored a touchdown in four of his last five appearances in Sunday games played on the East Coast.
- Jacoby Brissett has recorded 10+ rushing yards in each of his four previous October appearances as home underdogs against AFC opponents.
- Jacoby Brissett has recorded 17+ completions in each of his last nine October appearances with his team as an underdog.
- Kyle Dugger is just one away from 10 career interceptions.
Houston Texans Player Prop Facts
- C.J. Stroud has thrown two touchdowns in three of the Texans’ last four regular-season games against AFC opponents.
- Cam Akers has recorded 13+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 21 appearances with his team as a favorite.
- Nico Collins has recorded 78+ receiving yards in each of the Texans’ last seven regular season games.
- Stefon Diggs has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last four appearances at Gillette Stadium.
- Cam Akers has recorded 13+ rushing yards in each of his last 11 appearances following a win.
- C.J. Stroud has recorded 24+ completions in four of the Texans’ last five regular season games against AFC opponents.
- Heading into Week 6, Nico Collins ranks 1st in the NFL in receiving yards (567) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Heading into Week 6, the Patriots rank 32nd in the NFL in passing yards per game (119.4) this season.
- Heading into Week 6, the Patriots rank 32nd in the NFL in red zone percentage (30.8%) this season.
- Heading into Week 6, the Texans rank 1st in the NFL in passing yards per game (272.4) this season.
- Heading into Week 6, the Texans rank 1st in the NFL in Q2 opponent points per game (2.0) this season.
New England Patriots vs Houston Texans Prediction
Houston comes into this game with a very nice 4-1 record on the season, but they struggled in the second half last week and they were lucky to get away with a win. On the other side, the Patriots have lost four games in a row and they have scored a total of 26 points in their last three games. New England’s offense has been brutal, so they are making the switch to Drake Maye at quarterback. I know Houston has been less than impressive over their last three games, but they are finding ways to win and should have no problem moving the ball in this game, even without Nico Collins. Take the Texans to win big on the road.