The Las Vegas Raiders and the New England Patriots meet Sunday in NFL action from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. Here’s a Patriots vs Raiders prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Patriots vs Raiders pick.
Las Vegas Raiders Betting Preview
The Raiders have gotten off to a pretty darn good start this year, all things considered. Las Vegas kicked off the campaign with a 27-13 victory versus the Miami Dolphins. Game two was another victory, this time 26-14 over the Los Angeles Chargers on the road. In game three the Raiders were able to keep it going with a 35-27 road win over the New Orleans Saints.
Last Sunday versus the Kansas City Chiefs, the Raiders were looking pretty good by the break. Las Vegas was up 13-10 and it stayed that way until a wild fourth quarter. When the dust finally settle the Raiders had a tough loss 30-27 at home. Kirk Cousins was 31-of-52 for 365 yards, two scores and a pick. Brock Bowers added six catches for 86 yards and a touchdown.
New England Patriots Betting Preview
Over on the Pats’ side, they’ve had some very mixed results this season. In their opener versus the Seattle Seahawks, New England ended up with a tough loss 13-10. The Patriots got it together for a nice 20-3 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in game two, but fell back into the loss column after that. Game three was a 35-6 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars for a 1-2 start.
Matched up against the Buffalo Bills last weekend the Patriots traded punches during a very active second quarter and entered the break with a 17-14 deficit. New England was able to make their comeback though, finishing with a fourth quarter TD for a 29-26 road victory. QB Drake Maye was 22-of-37 for 269 yards, three scores and an interception while also leading the rush on 54 yards.
Why the New England Patriots will win
- The Patriots have won each of their 14 previous home games against starting rookie QBs.
- The Raiders have lost each of their last nine road games in October.
- The Patriots have covered the spread in each of their last eight games as favorites following a road win.
- The Raiders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight road games in October.
- The Patriots have won the first quarter in each of their last nine Week 5 home games against AFC opponents.
- The Patriots have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six games at Gillette Stadium.
- The Patriots have won the first half in each of their last 10 games at Gillette Stadium.
Why the Las Vegas Raiders will win
- The Raiders have won three of their last four games as underdogs.
- The Patriots have lost five of their last six home games against AFC West opponents.
- The Raiders have covered the spread in each of their last six games against AFC opponents.
- The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five October games against AFC West opponents.
- The Raiders have won the first half in each of their last four games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points).
- The underdogs have won the first quarter in each of the Raiders’ last four Week 5 games.
- The Raiders have scored the first touchdown in six of their last eight games against AFC East opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Patriots’ last four Week 5 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Six of the Raiders’ last seven games without Brock Bowers have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Six of the last eight Sunday games at Gillette Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
New England Patriots Player Prop Facts
- TreVeyon Henderson has scored two or more touchdowns in three of the Patriots’ last four regular season home games against AFC opponents.
- TreVeyon Henderson has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Patriots’ last four regular season home games against AFC opponents.
- Drake Maye has recorded 261+ passing yards in four of the Patriots’ last five October games.
- Hunter Henry has recorded 40+ receiving yards in each of the Patriots’ last seven regular season games as favorites.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded 34+ rushing yards in each of his last eight appearances at Gillette Stadium.
- TreVeyon Henderson has recorded 53+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Patriots’ last eight regular season games as favorites.
- Drake Maye has recorded 21+ completions in three of the Patriots’ last four October games against AFC opponents.
- Heading into Week 5, Drake Maye has thrown the equal-most interceptions in a single game this season (3 vs Seahawks, Week 1).
Las Vegas Raiders Player Prop Facts
- Brock Bowers has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last four appearances against AFC opponents.
- Kirk Cousins has recorded 249+ passing yards in each of his last eight Week 5 appearances.
- Michael Mayer has recorded 32+ receiving yards in five of the Raiders’ last six games.
- Ashton Jeanty has recorded 60+ rushing yards in each of the Raiders’ last three games following a loss.
- Ashton Jeanty has recorded 93+ rushing and receiving yards in four of the Raiders’ last five games.
- Kirk Cousins has recorded 22+ completions in each of his last eight Week 5 appearances.
- Heading into Week 5, Hezekiah Masses ranks T1st in the NFL in interceptions (3) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Patriots – three different players have recorded 50+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 5.
- Heading into Week 5, the Patriots rank T1st in the NFL in average points against in first quarters this season (0.0).
- Raiders – eight different players have recorded at least one touchdown this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 5.
- Heading into Week 5, the Raiders rank 1st in the NFL in forced fumbles (10) this season.
Patriots vs Raiders Prediction
I’ll go with New England. The Pats are coming off a gutsy road win versus a very good Buffalo team on Sunday. New England bagged 26 first downs, 405 total yards and two turnovers on offense. The D gave up 340 yards on the other side with 19 first downs and a couple of takeaways. The Patriots are back to .500 now with a couple winnable games on the horizon before a road matchup with the Bears.
As for the Raiders, if you just looked at the stats from their matchup with the Chiefs you’d think Vegas won. The Raiders had 28 first downs (to KC’s 18), 437 total yards (to KC’s 399) and 78 total plays (to KC’s 58). The big discrepancies were the 72 rushing yards (to KC’s 189) and the two turnovers (to KC’s zero). Las Vegas has a few more tricky matchups coming, starting with this difficult road outing.