The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints meet in week 4 NFL action from the Caesars Superdome on Sunday afternoon.

Buccaneers Stifled In Primetime

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers took their first loss of the season last time out, falling at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles by a final score of 25-11, dropping to 2-1 on the year. Baker Mayfield has thrown for 636 yards, 4 touchdowns and an interception on 66.7% passing while Rachaad White has 150 rushing yards and a touchdown. Mike Evans leads Tampa’s receiving group with 17 receptions for 297 yards and 3 touchdowns while Chris Godwin has 141 receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Ryan Neal has a team-high 25 total tackles while Christian Izien has a pair of INTs and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka has a pair of sacks on the year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Facts

The Buccaneers have won seven of their last eight games following a home loss.
The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven October games against NFC South opponents.
The Buccaneers have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six games as road underdogs against NFC South opponents.
The underdogs have won the first quarter in three the Buccaneers’ last four Week 4 games.
The Buccaneers have lost the first half in eight of their last nine October games as underdogs against NFC South opponents.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Facts

Mike Evans was one of only seven players in the NFL to record 1,000 receiving yards with less than 80 receptions last season

Saints Fall Short Vs. Packers

The New Orleans Saints ended up on the wrong side of the scoreboard for the first time this year, taking an 18-17 loss to Green Bay to fall to 2-1 on the year. Derek Carr has thrown for 636 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on 65.5% passing while Taysom Hill leads the Saints in rushing with 91 yards while Tony Jones Jr. has a pair of rushing TDs this season. Chris Olave leads New Orleans’ receiving group with 22 receptions for 302 yards while Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed each have 150+ receiving yards this season. On defense, Pete Werner has a team-high 26 total tackles while Carl Granderson has a team-high 2.5 sacks this season.

New Orleans Saints Team Facts

The Saints have won each of their last eight October games against NFC South opponents.
The Saints have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 games at Caesars Superdome against teams that held a winning record.
The Saints have won the first half in each of their last eight October games against NFC South opponents.
The Saints have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six games against NFC opponents.
The Saints have lost the first quarter in four of their last five games as favorites following a loss.

New Orleans Saints Player Prop Facts

Jamaal Williams ranked 1st in the NFL in Rushing Touchdowns (17) last season

Matchup/League Facts

The Saints ranked 1st in the NFC South for points allowed per game last season (20.3)
The Saints ranked 1st in the NFC South for average point differential last season (-0.9)
The Buccaneers ranked 32nd in the NFL in rushing yards per game (76.9) last season
The Buccaneers ranked 1st in the NFC South for total yards per game last season (346.7)

Chris’ Pick

I get the case to be made for the Saints here and I’m skittish to jump back on the Bucs after how they were pummeled in primetime. However, the Bucs are the better team in my eyes, and even if New Orleans wins this game, their three games this season have been decided by a combined 5 points. I think this is a spot where we just have another tight affair if the Bucs don’t win this outright.