In this article we will formulate a Packers vs Falcons prediction for this NFL game on Thursday, September 24th at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 3 matchup.
Green Bay Packers Betting Preview
The Green Bay Packers are 1-1 this season after they defeated the Jets by a score of 20-17 in overtime last week. Green Bay was tied 7-7 at halftime, but they trailed 17-7 in the fourth, before forcing overtime and getting the dramatic win. The Packers were out gained by a total of 285-199, went 1-9 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 1-0 in the game. Jordan Love threw for 145 yards and two touchdowns, while Matthew Golden caught four passes for 58 yards. Kaleb Johnson rushed eight times for 32 yards in the win.
Prior to that game, Green Bay lost to the Vikings by a score of 39-22 in week one. The Packers have scored 21.0 points per game with 244.5 passing yards and 64.5 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 28.0 points against per game this season. Jordan Love has thrown for 532 yards with four touchdowns and one interception this season.
Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview
The Atlanta Falcons are 0-2 this year after they lost to the Panthers by a score of 34-3 last week. Atlanta trailed 20-3 at halftime and they were outscored 14-0 in the second half for the ugly loss. The Falcons were out gained by a total of 340-286, went 4-13 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 5-0 in the game. Cooper Rush threw for 86 yards and two interceptions, while Drake London caught four passes for 51 yards. Bijan Robinson rushed 16 times for 72 yards in the game.
Prior to that loss, Atlanta lost to the Steelers by a score of 20-13 in week one. The Falcons have scored 8.0 points per game with 123.5 passing yards and 138.5 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 27.0 points against per game this season. Cooper Rush has started the first two games at quarterback, but the Falcons will start Michael Penix Jr at QB this week. Bijan Robinson has led the team with 155 rushing yards and 99 receiving yards through two weeks.
Why the Green Bay Packers will win
- The Packers have won each of their last 13 home openers.
- The Falcons have lost each of their last four games without Olamide Zaccheaus.
- The Packers have covered the spread in each of their last seven home openers.
- The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games without Olamide Zaccheaus.
- The Falcons have lost the first quarter in each of their last seven Thursday games.
- The Packers have won the first half in each of their last four games following a win.
- The Packers have scored the first touchdown in six of their last seven games against NFC opponents.
Why the Atlanta Falcons will win
- The underdogs have won each of the Packers’ last six Week 3 games.
- The Packers have lost each of their last three games as favorites without MarShawn Lloyd.
- The Packers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight games.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Packers’ last six Week 3 games.
- The road team has won the first half in each of the Packers’ last five Week 3 games.
- The Falcons have scored the first touchdown in nine of their last 12 games following a home loss.
- The Falcons have won the first quarter in four of their last five September games as underdogs.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Falcons’ last seven September games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of the Packers’ last four games as favorites without MarShawn Lloyd have gone OVER the total points line.
Green Bay Packers Player Prop Facts
- Christian Watson has scored the first touchdown in three of his last four appearances against NFC opponents.
- Jonnu Smith has recorded 12+ receiving yards in each of his last 10 appearances with his team as a favorite following a win.
- Jordan Love has recorded 246+ passing yards in seven of the Packers’ last eight September games against NFC opponents.
- Jordan Love has recorded 19+ completions in four of his last five September home appearances.
- Tyrod Taylor has recorded 21+ rushing yards in four of his last five home appearances against conference opponents.
- Josh Jacobs has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last eight home appearances against NFC opponents.
- Josh Jacobs has scored the last touchdown in four of his last five regular season appearances with the Packers as favorites against NFC opponents.
- Jonnu Smith has recorded 26+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 10 appearances with his team as a favorite following a win.
- Heading into Week 3, Jordan Love ranks 1st in the league for times blitzed (42) this season.
Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts
- Bijan Robinson has recorded 83+ rushing yards in nine of the Falcons’ last 10 games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points).
- Bijan Robinson has recorded 168+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Falcons’ last four road games.
- Bijan Robinson has scored a touchdown in each of the Falcons’ last four road games.
- Austin Hooper has recorded 17+ receiving yards in each of his last 12 regular season appearances with the Falcons as underdogs against NFC opponents.
- Heading into Week 3, Za’Darius Smith has recorded the equal-most sacks in a single game this season (2.0 vs Steelers, Week 1).
Matchup/League Facts
- Packers – four different players have recorded 50+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.
- Packers – two different players have recorded 90+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.
- Heading into Week 3, the Falcons rank 32nd in the NFL in points per game (8.0) this season.
- Heading into Week 3, the Falcons rank 1st in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (63.0) this season.
Packers vs Falcons Prediction
Atlanta comes into this matchup with an 0-2 record to start the season and they have been outscored 54-16 in those two games. The Falcons will have Penix at quarterback for this one, so the offense should show improvement. Green Bay used a big fourth quarter and overtime to escape last week against the Jets, but they have not looked very good through two games. The Packers are the better overall team in this matchup, but this is a lot of points to lay with a team that has had plenty of issues over the last five quarters. Take the Falcons and the points here.