Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction 11/1/26 NFL Picks Today

Nikos Lagouretos

Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction

In this Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction for this NFL Week 7 matchup on Sunday, November 1^st, the Patriots are coming as -6.5 road favorites. The Patriots have been the better team this season and are 3-1 in their last 4 games, but they have been struggling on the road with just one win in four road games played. They have a top-10 defense and will face a bad Dolphins team that has been winless at home and even though has covered the spread in two of its last three games, they will have the third-worst offense in football and a bottom-8 defense, having almost a -10 point differential this season. They have also lost both head-to-head meetings against the Patriots, so even though the lines feels a bit too much, I will lay the -6.5 points with the Patriots on the road in this one, as I don’t see Miami stringing a second straight win.

Miami Dolphins Preview

The Miami Dolphins have a 1-5 record this season are sitting on the 4th place of the AFC East. They have a 0-2 home record and are 2-4 against the spread and 3-3 in over/under. They are coming off a 28-25 road win against the Jets and will face the Lions, the Colts and the Bills next.

Offensively, the Dolphins average 16.3 points per game, ranking 30th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 26.2 points per game, which is 25th. Miami averages 293.5 total yards per game (162 passing and 131.5 rushing), while allowing 337.7 total yards per game (110.2 rushing and 227.5 passing). They average 5.2 yards per play, while allowing 5.7 yards per play to opponents. They score on 32.1% of their offensive drives, while averaging 1.75 points per drive. Defensively, they allow opponents to score on 49.1% of drives, while allowing 2.74 points per drive. Offensively, they have turned the ball over 8 times, while defensively, they have forced 5 turnovers, giving them a -3 net turnover margin.

Malik Willis leads the Dolphins with 1057 passing yards with 57.6% completed passes and four touchdowns. Ollie Gordon leads the team in rushing yards with 339, while Malik Washington has 26 receptions for a team-high 289 receiving yards. Defensively, Jacob Rodriguez has a team-high 61 total tackles (26 of them solo), while Zach Sieler leads the team in sacks, with 2.

Injury Report:

Reese Taylor (Questionable, Quadriceps) – Est. return Nov 1
Willie Gay Jr. (Questionable, Illness) – Est. return Nov 1
Robert Beal Jr. (Questionable, Hamstring) – Est. return Nov 1
Jaylen Wright (Questionable, Quadriceps) – Est. return Nov 1
De’Von Achane (IR, Knee – ACL) – Est. return Feb 15

New England Patriots Preview

The New England Patriots have a 4-3 record this season are sitting on the 2nd place of the AFC East. They have a 1-3 road record and are 2-4 against the spread and 3-3 in over/under. They are coming off a 24-30 road loss against the Bears and will face the Packers, the Lions and the Chargers next.

Offensively, the Patriots average 22.9 points per game, ranking 19th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 20.4 points per game, which is 9th. New England averages 375 total yards per game (253 passing and 122 rushing), while allowing 315.7 total yards per game (95.3 rushing and 220.4 passing). They average 6 yards per play, while allowing 5.4 yards per play to opponents. They score on 37% of their offensive drives, while averaging 2.10 points per drive. Defensively, they allow opponents to score on 37.3% of drives, while allowing 1.92 points per drive. Offensively, they have turned the ball over 14 times, while defensively, they have forced 7 turnovers, giving them a -7 net turnover margin.

Drake Maye leads the Patriots with 1784 passing yards with 65.9% completed passes and thirteen touchdowns. Rhamondre Stevenson leads the team in rushing yards with 285, while Hunter Henry has 26 receptions for a team-high 296 receiving yards. Defensively, Christian Elliss has a team-high 51 total tackles (29 of them solo), while Elijah Ponder leads the team in sacks, with 5.5.

Injury Report:

Karon Prunty (Questionable, Hamstring) – Est. return Nov 1
Ben Brown (Questionable, Knee) – Est. return Nov 1
Channing Canada (Questionable, Hamstring) – Est. return Nov 1
Carlton Davis III (Questionable, Neck) – Est. return Nov 1
Alijah Vera-Tucker (IR, Hamstring) – Est. return Nov 29

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Betting Trends: Week 8

Why the Miami Dolphins will win

The Dolphins have won each of their last 12 November games at Hard Rock Stadium.
The Patriots have lost each of their eight previous games at Hard Rock Stadium following a road loss.
The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven road games when playing with a rest advantage.
The Dolphins have covered the spread in each of their last six November games against AFC East opponents.
The Dolphins have won the first quarter in each of their last five day games following a road win.
The Dolphins have won the first half in each of their last 12 November games at Hard Rock Stadium.
The Dolphins have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six games against AFC East opponents.

Why the New England Patriots will win

The Patriots have won each of their last 16 games as favorites.
The Dolphins have lost each of their last 13 games as underdogs following a win.
The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 10 games as underdogs following a win.
The Patriots have covered the spread in each of their last 10 Week 8 games as favorites.
The Patriots have won the first quarter in each of their last eight day games against AFC East opponents.
The Patriots have won the first half in each of their last 12 games against teams that held a losing record.
The Patriots have scored the first touchdown in each of their last eight day games against AFC East opponents.

Total Points Facts

Each of the last eight games between AFC East teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Each of the Patriots’ last seven day games against AFC East opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
Ten of the Dolphins’ last 11 games against AFC East opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts

Ollie Gordon II has scored a touchdown in each of the Dolphins’ last four games.
Chris Bell has recorded 25+ receiving yards in three of the Dolphins’ last four games against AFC opponents.
Ollie Gordon II has recorded 88+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Dolphins’ last three games.
Ollie Gordon II has recorded 88+ rushing yards in each of the Dolphins’ last three games.
Heading into Week 8, Chop Robinson ranks T4th in the AFC for quarterback hurries (6) this season.

New England Patriots Player Prop Facts

Demario Douglas has recorded 34+ receiving yards in each of the Patriots’ last 11 November games.
Rhamondre Stevenson has scored at least one touchdown in four of the Patriots’ last five road games against AFC East opponents.
TreVeyon Henderson has recorded 38+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Patriots’ last 10 regular season games as favorites.
TreVeyon Henderson has recorded 31+ rushing yards in each of the Patriots’ last six games against AFC East opponents.
Heading into Week 8, Elijah Ponder ranks T1st in the league for fumbles recovered (2) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

Dolphins – three different players have recorded 60+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 8.
Dolphins – three different players have recorded 70+ rushing yards in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 8.
Patriots – 10 different players have recorded at least one touchdown this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 8.
Patriots – four different players have recorded 50+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 8.