The Buffalo Bills and the Pittsburgh Steelers meet Sunday in NFL action from Acrisure Stadium. Here’s a Steelers vs Bills prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Steelers vs Bills pick.
Buffalo Bills Betting Preview
This year the Bills kicked off the season with a 4-0 run, taking out the Ravens, Jets, Dolphins and Saints during that time. After consecutive losses to the Patriots and Falcons, Buffalo beat Carolina and Kansas City. Since then it’s been a 1-2 run for Buffalo, taking out the Buccaneers in between losses to the Dolphins and Texans. That gives the Bills a 7-4 record across the first 11 games of the year.
In the Houston game last Thursday, the Bills were trailing 20-16 by the break. The teams exchanged field goals in the second half, resulting in a 23-19 Bills loss. QB Josh Allen was 24-of-34 for 253 yards and two picks while James Cook led the rush on 17 carries for 116 yards and a TD. Tops in receiving was Khalil Shakir with eight catches for 110 yards on 10 targets.
Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Preview
Over on the Steelers’ side, they opened up the year on a pretty nice run. Pittsburgh went 4-1 out of the gate, with a lone loss to the Seahawks amid wins versus the Jets, Patriots, Vikings and Browns. A 2-3 run came next though, as the Steelers beat the Colts and Bengals alongside losses to the Bengals, Packers and Rams during that time. Pittsburgh would emerge with a 6-4 record across their first 10 games of the season.
Last weekend versus the Bears, the Steelers were up 21-17 by the end of the first half. Pittsburgh lost the handle from there though, getting outscored 14-7 in a tough loss 31-28. Mason Rudolph went 24-of-31 for 171 yards, one TD and one pick, while Kenneth Gainwell led the rush on 92 yards from 10 carries. Calvin Austin added four catches for 36 yards as the team’s leading receiver in the losing effort.
Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Trends: Week 13
Why the Pittsburgh Steelers will win
- The Steelers have won each of their seven previous games against the Bills following a road loss.
- The Bills have lost each of their last three games as favorites against AFC opponents.
- The Steelers have covered the spread in eight of their last nine November home games against AFC opponents.
- The Bills have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as favorites against AFC opponents.
- The Bills have lost the first quarter in three of their last four Week 13 games as favorites against AFC opponents.
- The Steelers have won the first half in each of their last seven Sunday games at Acrisure Stadium.
Why the Buffalo Bills will win
- The Bills have won each of their last 12 games as favorites when playing with a rest advantage.
- The Steelers have lost four of their last five home games against AFC East opponents.
- The Bills have covered the spread in each of their last six games following a road loss.
- The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
- The Bills have won the first quarter in each of their last three games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Steelers have lost the first half in each of their last eight games as underdogs against AFC East opponents.
- The Bills have scored the first touchdown in seven of their last eight Sunday games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Steelers’ last seven home games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Nine of the Bills’ last 10 road games against AFC North opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Three of the last four Sunday games at Acrisure Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Facts
- Jonnu Smith has scored a touchdown in four of his last five appearances against AFC East opponents.
- Jaylen Warren has recorded 62+ rushing yards in five of the Steelers’ last six games.
- Aaron Rodgers has recorded 274+ passing yards in each of his last three home appearances against AFC East opponents.
- D.K. Metcalf has recorded 60+ receiving yards in each of his six previous Week 13 appearances.
- Jonnu Smith has recorded 21+ rushing and receiving yards in eight of his last nine appearances with his team as an underdog against AFC opponents.
- Aaron Rodgers has recorded 23+ completions in five of his last six appearances with his team as an underdog following a loss.
- Heading into Week 13, T.J. Watt is the only player in the NFL to record 7+ sacks and an interception this season.
Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts
- James Cook has scored two touchdowns in each of the Bills’ last four road games against teams that held a winning record.
- James Cook has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last seven appearances following a road loss.
- James Cook has recorded 87+ rushing yards in each of the Bills’ last four road games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
- Josh Allen has recorded 235+ passing yards in each of the Bills’ last nine November games.
- Keon Coleman has recorded 26+ receiving yards in each of his eight previous Sunday regular season road appearances.
- James Cook has recorded 99+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last eight appearances following a road loss.
- Josh Allen has recorded 20+ completions in each of the Bills’ last seven November games against AFC opponents.
- Heading into Week 13, James Cook is the only player to have recorded 1000+ rushing yards in each of the last three seasons. (including 2025).
Matchup/League Facts
- Steelers – two different players have recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 13.
- Steelers – two different players have recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 13.
- Bills – seven different players have recorded 60+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 13.
- Heading into Week 13, the Bills rank 1st in the NFL in rushing yards per game (147.2) this season.
Steelers vs Bills Prediction
I’ll take a stab on the Bills. Buffalo needs to rally and bounce back following a listless loss to a middling Houston team, though. The Bills posted 326 yards in that one with 143 rush yards but also notched just 14 first downs, 5-of-16 on third downs and three turnovers. The defense wasn’t too bad though, holding the Texans to just 2-of-12 on third downs and 15 first downs the four-point defeat. Buffalo has lost two of the last three games, scoring fewer than 20 points in both losses. They’ve got to find a way to fire up the offense for this one.
As for Pittsburgh, they couldn’t finish off a plucky Bears team in a tricky road matchup on Sunday. The Steelers gained 345 total yards with 5.0 yards per play and 22 first downs while going 8-of-14 on third-down tries but also coughed up a couple of turnovers. Pitt’s defense recovered two fumbles but also gave up 5.4 yards per play and 7-of-13 on third downs. The Steelers do have 62 combined points over their last two outings, so we could have a pretty big total in this one.