Prop Bets

Kansas City Chiefs vs Green Bay Packers NFL Prop Bets 11/7/2021

Green Bay Packers (7-1) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (4-4)
November 7, 2021 4:25 pm EDT
The Line: Kansas City Chiefs -132 / Green Bay Packers +118; Over/Under: -53.5
(Click here for latest betting odds)

NFL Week 9 Prop Bets: Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has an over-under total of 289.5 passing yards. So far, Mahomes has surpassed this line in 38% of his contests.

Despite his recent struggles, the Chiefs quarterback is averaging 296 yards per game through the air. When taking into account the level of his defensive competition, Mahomes is averaging 63 yards per game above expectation.

Winning Props Bets

In his last game vs. the Giants, the former MVP threw for 275 yards on 48 attempts. This was also his 7th straight game having thrown an interception.

This year, Mahomes is 2nd in the NFL in passing attempts and 3rd in overall passing yards. Although his team sits at a disappointing (4-4) record, his statistical output still places him among the league’s best quarterbacks.

In week nine, Mahomes faces off against a Packers defense ranked 6th in passing yards allowed per game. However, this week will be their toughest test of the season. Once again, they will be without their best cornerback Jaire Alexander.

Even though Green Bay has held up well defending the pass, I don’t see anyone on the unit able to contain Tryeek Hill or Travis Kelce. In this game. look for Mahomes to have his 4th +300 yard game of the season.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Patrick Mahomes289.538.0296.038.0331.038.0272.062.063.458333

NFL Week 9 Prop Bets: Green Bay Packers

The big story surrounding this game is the absence of Aaron Rodgers due to testing positive for COVID 19. Once again, we will be deprived of a matchup between Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes.

In Rodgers’ place, his eventual replacement, Jordan Love will be making his first career start. Sunday’s game vs. KC will give us our first glance at what life will be like in Green Bay without Rodgers.

Love enters this contest with an over-under line of 225.5 passing yards. I expect the Packers to come out looking to establish the run against a Chiefs defense allowing 121 yards per game.

Last week, without their top receiver Davante Adams, Green Bay already moved toward a run-heavy game plan. I expect this to become even more pronounced without the reigning MVP.

I recommend taking both Jordan Love and Davante Adams (76.5) to finish below their player props.

Joe Kiemen's Free Pick:
Patrick Mahomes Over 289.5 Passing Yards
Free Bet Match Up To $1,001; Use code DAWGZRF

Joe Kiemen

Joe Kiemen has been writing about sports for over 5 years and focuses on using data analysis/modeling to find profitable betting opportunities.

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