In this article, we will formulate a Raiders vs Patriots Prediction for this NFL Week 1 game on Sunday, September 7th at the Gillette Stadium. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.
New England Patriots Preview
New England finished the preseason with a 2-1 record. They lost at home by the Jets, 10-30, won Indianapolis on the road by 23-19 and Seattle at home by 20-7. Offensively, New England finished the preseason averaging 14.5 points per game, while allowing 18.8 points per game defensively. The Patriots averaged 91.8 rushing yards and 152.5 passing yards per game. They allowed 112.5 rushing yards per game and 185.8 passing yards per game.
Ben Wooldridge led the Patriots in the preseason with 26/45 completed passes and 269 total passing yards. He also had 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. Joshua Dobbs had 16/28 passes for 151 passing yards and 1 touchdown, while Drake Maye added 7/12 passes for 58 passing yards.
Defensively, Dell Pettus had a team-high 13 total tackles, 12 of them solo, while Anfernee Jennings had a team-high 3 total sacks, and Kyle Dugger had a team-high 2 interceptions. interception.
Las Vegas Raiders Preview
Las Vegas finished the preseason with a 1-2 record. They won Atlanta on the road by 17-10, then lost at home by Miami 17-24, and by Houston, 7-26. Offensively, Las Vegas finished the preseason averaging 17.3 points per game, while allowing 21.7 points per game defensively. The Raiders averaged 94.7 rushing yards and 206.7 passing yards per game. They allowed 148.0 rushing yards per game and 180.3 passing yards per game.
Aidan O’Connell led the Raiders in the preseason with 15/23 completed passes and 138 total passing yards. He also had 0 touchdowns and 1 interception. Geno Smith had 9/14 passes for 96 passing yards and 1 touchdown, while Cam Miller added 2/6 passes for 25 passing yards and 1 interception.
Defensively, Tommy Eichenberg had a team-high 7 total tackles, 4 of them solo, while Andre Carter II had a team-high 1 sack, and Isaiah Pola-Mao had a team-high 1 interception.
Why the New England Patriots will win
- The Raiders have lost each of their last eight September road games against AFC East opponents.
- The favorites have won each of the Raiders’ last 13 games.
- The Raiders have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine road games against AFC East opponents.
- The favorites have covered the spread in each of the last four games between the Raiders and Patriots.
- The Raiders have lost the first quarter in four of their last five games against AFC opponents.
- The Patriots have scored the first touchdown in each of their last seven games as favorites against AFC West opponents.
- The Raiders have lost the first half in each of their last seven games as road underdogs.
Why the Las Vegas Raiders will win
- The Patriots have lost each of their last seven games before a Division game.
- The Raiders have won four of their last six season openers as underdogs against AFC opponents.
- The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games before a Division game.
- The Raiders have covered the spread in five of their last six road games before a Division game.
- The Raiders have won the first quarter in five of their last six September games as underdogs against AFC East opponents.
- The Raiders have scored the first touchdown in six of their last seven Week 1 road games.
- The Patriots have lost the first half in each of their last seven games against AFC West opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Patriots’ last six home games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the Raiders’ last six road openers against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of the last five Sunday games at Gillette Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Patriots – three different players recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game last season – equal-most in the NFL.
- Patriots – three different players recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game last season – equal-most in the NFL.
- The Raiders ranked 32nd in the NFL in rushing yards per game (79.8) last season.
- The Raiders suffered the equal-most losses by a margin of 10+ points last season (9).
Raiders vs Patriots Prediction
The Raiders have won their last two meetings against the Patriots, but the Patriots have won their five meetings before that, including their two home meetings against the Raiders. Both teams are tied 3-3 against the spread in their last 6 meetings, and under is 4-2 in their last 6 meetings.
In this Raiders vs Patriots Prediction, the Patriots are coming as -2.5-point home favorites. The Patriots won two of their three preseason games, but still had a negative point differential. Both teams were underwhelming offensively, scoring just 31.8 points per game, and the total is already set at a low 42.5-points, so the books also expect a low-scoring affair. Four of their six overall meetings have also gone under the total, including their most recent meeting back in 2023, which had just 38 total points. Both teams ranked 27th and 30th in converting red-zone trips into touchdowns and 29th and 30th in points per game last year. I expect both teams to struggle on the offensive end, so take the under 42.5 in this one.