In this article, we will formulate a Saints vs Falcons Prediction for this NFL Week 18 game on Sunday, January 4th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.
Atlanta Falcons Preview
The Atlanta Falcons have a 7-9 record this season and are sitting second in the NFC South and have been eliminated from playoff contention. They are 7-9 ATS, 8-7-1 in Over/Under and have a 4-4 home record and a 3-5 away record. The Falcons are coming off a 27-24 home win against the Los Angeles Rams.
Offensively, the Falcons average 20.9 points per game, ranking 24th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 24 points per game, which is 20th. Atlanta averages 340.8 total yards per game (210.3 passing and 130.6 rushing), while allowing 325.8 total yards per game (127.4 rushing and 198.4 passing).
Michael Penix leads the Falcons with 1982 passing yards with 60.1% completed passes and nine touchdowns. Bijan Robinson leads the team in rushing yards with 1445, while Kyle Pitts has a team-high 82 receptions for 870 receiving yards, and five touchdowns. Defensively, Kaden Elliss has a team-high 101 total tackles (57 of them solo), while James Pearce leads the team in sacks, with 8.5, while Xavier Watts has five interceptions.
New Orleans Saints Preview
The New Orleans Saints have a 6-10 record this season and are sitting fourth in the NFC South and have been eliminated from playoff contention. They are 6-10 ATS, 5-10-1 in Over/Under and have a 3-5 home record and a 3-5 away record. The Saints are coming off a 34-26 away win against the Tennessee Titans.
Offensively, the Saints average 18.1 points per game, ranking 29th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 22.8 points per game, which is 16th. New Orleans averages 311.9 total yards per game (218.5 passing and 93.4 rushing), while allowing 305.5 total yards per game (125.1 rushing and 180.4 passing).
Tyler Shough leads the Saints with 2125 passing yards with 67.8% completed passes and nine touchdowns. Alvin Kamara leads the team in rushing yards with 471, while Chris Olave has a team-high 100 receptions for 1163 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns. Defensively, Demario Davis has a team-high 137 total tackles (63 of them solo), while Cameron Jordan leads the team in sacks, with 9.5, while Kool-Aid McKinstry has three interceptions.
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends: Week 18
Why the Atlanta Falcons will win
- The Saints have lost each of their last eight games without Taysom Hill.
- The home team has won five of the last six games between the Saints and Falcons.
- The Saints have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games when playing with a rest advantage.
- The Falcons have covered the spread in four of their last five games against NFC opponents.
- The Falcons have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five games against the Saints.
- The Saints have lost the first half in 11 of their last 12 games as underdogs.
- The Saints have lost the first quarter in five of their last six games against teams that held a losing record.
Why the New Orleans Saints will win
- The Falcons have lost each of their last four games as favorites against NFC South opponents.
- The underdogs have won four of the Falcons’ last five games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
- The Saints have covered the spread in each of their last 16 games played as underdogs on the East Coast.
- The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games in January.
- The Saints have won the first quarter in each of their last four games as road underdogs following a road win.
- The Saints have won the first half in each of their last four road games in January.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Falcons’ last six January games against NFC South opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the Saints’ last six games as underdogs following a road win have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Four of the last five games between teams from the same division have gone UNDER the total points line.
Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts
- Bijan Robinson has scored two touchdowns in three of the Falcons’ last four games as favorites against NFC South opponents.
- Kirk Cousins has recorded 222+ passing yards in 12 of his last 13 appearances with his team as a home favorite against NFC opponents.
- Kirk Cousins has recorded 20+ completions in seven of his eight previous regular season appearances against the Saints.
- Bijan Robinson has scored at least one touchdown in eight of the Falcons’ last nine games following a win.
- Tyler Allgeier has recorded 24+ rushing yards in each of the Falcons’ last six games against the Saints.
- Darnell Mooney has recorded 34+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 12 home appearances against division opponents.
- Darnell Mooney has recorded 34+ receiving yards in each of his last 12 home appearances against division opponents.
- Heading into Week 18, Drake London has recorded the equal-most receiving touchdowns in a single game this season (3 vs Patriots, Week 9).
New Orleans Saints Player Prop Facts
- Chris Olave has scored at least one touchdown in four of the Saints’ last five games.
- Tyler Shough has recorded 22+ completions in each of the Saints’ last four games following a win.
- Tyler Shough has recorded 243+ passing yards in each of the Saints’ last four games following a win.
- Chris Olave has recorded 81+ receiving yards in each of his last four appearances with the Saints as underdogs following a win.
- Taysom Hill has recorded 18+ rushing yards in each of the Saints’ last seven road games against the Falcons.
- Alvin Kamara has recorded 100+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last four January appearances against NFC South opponents.
- Heading into Week 18, Kool-Aid McKinstry has recorded the equal-most interceptions in a single game this season (2 vs Giants, Week 5).
Matchup/League Facts
- Falcons – 15 different players have recorded 1.0 sacks or more in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 18.
- Heading into Week 18, the Falcons rank 32nd in the NFL in average kickoff return (22.8 yards) this season.
- Saints – five different players have recorded 50+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 18.
- Saints – two different players have recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 18.
Saints vs Falcons Prediction
In this Saints vs Falcons Prediction, the Falcons are coming as -3-point home favorites. Both teams have almost identical overall records this season and similar home/away splits, as they both have three home/away wins. They both have almost identical against the spread record and both come into this matchup in good form, with 3 and 4 consecutive wins, so I see no value on either side. Both teams have been struggling offensively this season, as they average just 39 points per game combined and their previous meeting this season had 34 total points, so I expect another low-scoring affair today. Take the under 45.5 points in this one.