In this article, we will formulate a Saints vs Lions Prediction for this NFL Week 1 game on Sunday, September 13th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.
Detroit Lions Preview
The Lions finished the preseason with a 2-1 record and were placed 2nd in the NFC North. They had a 1-0 home record and a 1-1 road record. They are coming off a 25-16 road victory over the Colts, where they outgained their opponents 356 to 229 total yards and had 25 first downs. The Detroit Lions had 170 passing yards, 186 rushing yards, while winning the turnover battle by 1-4. They went 13/19 on third down conversions and 4/4 in the red zone.
Offensively in the preseason, the Lions averaged 18.7 points per game, while allowing 15 points per game defensively. Detroit averaged 303 total yards per game (141.7 passing and 161.3 rushing), while allowing 242.7 total yards per game (187.3 passing and 55.3 rushing).
New Orleans Saints Preview
The Saints finished the preseason with a 1-2 record and were placed 4th in the NFC South. They had a 0-1 home record and a 1-1 road record. They are coming off a 27-24 road victory over the Cowboys, where they outgained their opponents 326 to 328 total yards and had 23 first downs. The New Orleans Saints had 157 passing yards, 169 rushing yards, while the turnover battle was tied at 0-0. They went 3/9 on third down conversions and 3/4 in the red zone.
Offensively in the preseason, the Saints averaged 15.7 points per game, while allowing 27.3 points per game defensively. New Orleans averaged 298.7 total yards per game (188.7 passing and 110 rushing), while allowing 336 total yards per game (216 passing and 120 rushing).
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions Betting Trends: Week 1
Why the Detroit Lions will win
- The Lions have won each of their last 15 games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
- The Saints have lost each of their last six games in September.
- The Saints have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games against NFC North opponents.
- The Lions have covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 games without Jameson Williams.
- The Saints have lost the first quarter in eight of their last nine road games.
- The Lions have won the first half in 14 of their last 15 September games as favorites against NFC opponents.
- The Lions have scored the first touchdown in six of their last seven games against NFC South opponents.
Why the New Orleans Saints will win
- The underdogs have won each of the Lions’ last three games.
- The Lions have lost three of their last four games as favorites without Brock Wright.
- The Saints have covered the spread in each of their last six games without Julian Blackmon.
- The Lions have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five home games without Aidan Hutchinson.
- The Lions have lost the first quarter in four of their last five games as favorites.
- The road team has won the first half in six of the last seven games between the Saints and Lions.
- The Saints have scored the first touchdown in each of their last five Week 1 games.
Total Points Facts
- Eight of the Saints’ last nine games as underdogs without Julian Blackmon have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of the Lions’ last five home games without Kerby Joseph have gone OVER the total points line.
- Four of the last five Sunday games at Ford Field have gone OVER the total points line.
Detroit Lions Player Prop Facts
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has scored the last touchdown in each of the Lions’ last three September home games.
- Jahmyr Gibbs has scored two or more touchdowns in three of the Lions’ last four home games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
- Jared Goff has recorded 25+ completions in each of the Lions’ last four Sunday games.
- Jahmyr Gibbs has recorded 90+ rushing yards in five of the Lions’ last six games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
- Jared Goff has recorded 279+ passing yards in each of the Lions’ last four Sunday games.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has recorded 77+ receiving yards in seven of the Lions’ last eight home games against NFC opponents.
- Jahmyr Gibbs has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Lions’ last nine home games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
- Jameson Williams has recorded 66+ rushing and receiving yards in seven of the Lions’ last eight Sunday games.
- Jared Goff recorded the equal-most passing touchdowns in a single game last season (5 vs Bears, Week 2).
New Orleans Saints Player Prop Facts
- Travis Etienne has recorded 77+ rushing and receiving yards in six of his last eight road appearances.
- Tyler Shough has recorded 259+ passing yards in each of the Saints’ last four games.
- Travis Etienne has recorded 16+ receiving yards in five of his last six road appearances.
- Travis Etienne has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last four appearances with his team as an underdog.
- Tyler Shough has recorded 18+ rushing yards in each of the Saints’ last four games as underdogs.
- Tyler Shough has recorded 22+ completions in each of the Saints’ last four games.
- Travis Etienne recorded the equal-most receiving touchdowns in a single game last season (3 vs Jets, Week 15).
Matchup/League Facts
- Lions – two different players recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game last season – equal-most in the NFL.
- Lions – two different players recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game last season – equal-most in the NFL.
- Saints – five different players recorded 50+ rushing yards in a game last season – equal-most in the NFL.
- Saints – two different players recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game last season – equal-most in the NFL.
Saints vs Lions Prediction
In this Saints vs Lions Prediction, the Lions are coming as -6.5 home favorites. the Lions looked much better in the preseason, winning two of their three games and playing very good defense, holding opponents into just 15 ppg, 12.3 points fewer than the struggling Saints. On top of that, New Orleans also struggled offensively and had a -11.6 point differential in the preseason and are 2-4 in their last 6 meetings against the Lions. I like the hosts to take care of business in their season opener at home and cover the -6.5 number.